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Right, well my initial thoughts as to your question to the group was that if the majority had seen your request for a shield, that means that there would be a better chance of identifying the 1k sons, as they would likely be those who didn't see your request (again, working off the assumption that they would try to kill you). Unfortunately, as most people had not seen it, it's difficult to make any assumptions, although I think that it is quite likely now that either both Dave and Scott are innocent (which would imply you being shielded), or that the power roles actually do have some magical nightphase skippy-power-thingy.

However, for some reason, it seems to be that the skip-a-kill (as you refer to it) is more likely. Although I can't say why (in that it is more of a gut feeling than a solid notion), possibly because of the flavour text.

Incidentally, I noticed that the nightphase came all the way down to the last minute (approximately), Thor , are you always going to keep it open for the whole night? If not, there is the possibility that the 1k sons simply missed the deadline, which would imply that they are from the group of less talkative or attentive players. On the other hand, he might just keep it open for the nightphase talking thread.

TherVadam wrote:Right, well my initial thoughts as to your question to the group was that if the majority had seen your request for a shield, that means that there would be a better chance of identifying the 1k sons, as they would likely be those who didn't see your request (again, working off the assumption that they would try to kill you). Unfortunately, as most people had not seen it, it's difficult to make any assumptions, although I think that it is quite likely now that either both Dave and Scott are innocent (which would imply you being shielded), or that the power roles actually do have some magical nightphase skippy-power-thingy.

How does this possibly make them innocent? That's a deliberate statement, if I'm not mistaken, and I'd like to hear more detail on the matter.

TherVadam wrote: Thor , are you always going to keep it open for the whole night? If not, there is the possibility that the 1k sons simply missed the deadline, which would imply that they are from the group of less talkative or attentive players. On the other hand, he might just keep it open for the nightphase talking thread.

I will pretty much always leave the night phase going to maximum length so as to help facilitate all the various roles getting in their powers and to allow any night talk groups time to debate.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:We don't even know what the Space Wolf powers are except that Thor has mentioned a 'night talk thread' or something... possibly benefitting both sides, since he bothered to mention it?
I presume that scum are allowed to communicate at night anyway, right? The flavour text mentioned communications between Space Wolves... we can't know what is and isn't flavour. Bah.

My alternative guess was that Orkeo would be targetted because that would make me look bad, but he's not dead either so it seems unlikely.
VikingScott actually thinks it's 'likely' and a 'safe bet' - he also saw that I had asked for a shield, and if he was scum he would have been able to advise his comrades not to target me. Dave could be in the same position. Anyone could be denying it.

Two things.

1. Is where Thor mentioned a "night talk thread" on page one? That has slipped by me.

2. When you asked for a sheild it was because you thought you were gonna get night killed. So by my deduction Scum could just lie and say they didn't see it. I was being honest and said that I did see it. If I were scum as you imply then I would have said I didn't see it and probably would have advised the sons not to target. I don't know how scum players work, I've never been one in the two games I've played.

VikingScott wrote:

Arctik_Firangi wrote:We don't even know what the Space Wolf powers are except that Thor has mentioned a 'night talk thread' or something... possibly benefitting both sides, since he bothered to mention it?
I presume that scum are allowed to communicate at night anyway, right? The flavour text mentioned communications between Space Wolves... we can't know what is and isn't flavour. Bah.

My alternative guess was that Orkeo would be targetted because that would make me look bad, but he's not dead either so it seems unlikely.
VikingScott actually thinks it's 'likely' and a 'safe bet' - he also saw that I had asked for a shield, and if he was scum he would have been able to advise his comrades not to target me. Dave could be in the same position. Anyone could be denying it.

Two things.

1. Is where Thor mentioned a "night talk thread" on page one? That has slipped by me.

Thor's message at the beginning of the night phase.

2. When you asked for a sheild it was because you thought you were gonna get night killed. So by my deduction Scum could just lie and say they didn't see it. I was being honest and said that I did see it. If I were scum as you imply then I would have said I didn't see it and probably would have advised the sons not to target. I don't know how scum players work, I've never been one in the two games I've played.

You're not scum because you saw it any more than those who said they didn't see it are...n't. Or something.

You're almost correct. I'm aware of who in the game was online when I had the message up. I can't prove that anyone saw anything, but on the other hand there is more than one way to gather information. People also could have been reading offline. Anything is possible. Less is likely.

Ok, I think things have pretty much come to a standstill with regards to lynching someone. Not good. It seems as if the only person who thinks he has any evidence is Arctik_Firangi, however I haven't been concentrating so much on the game as before (hence the lack of posts) due to running my DH campaign over in the SH/RPG forums and there not being much for me to respond to/comment on, so this may not be the case.

Arctik_Firangi: In regards to your point about the doctor role - I didn't deny that the Doctor could use logic. I just think it is unlikely that both the doctor and the scum team would come to the same conclusion, given the number of factors involved. However, that would seem to be a moot point as the current consensus seems to be that the Scum team are using a 'double-kill/info-grabber' power that requires them to skip a night phase. Tbh, this seems more likely than any of my ideas.

However, the question that needs to be asked is: does this get us any further in deciding who to lynch? Presumably if they are using an ability that gathers info, they need to target someone with it, so why would they be confident enought in their guess to use it one someone who they think has an important power role? It seems to me to be a very odd move this early on in the game, and is perhaps evidence of a less experienced Scum team trying out their new toys as soon as possible.

We have less than half of our time left, and we seem to have progressed very little, perhaps from lack of posts, perhaps from lack of investigation, most likely from both.

Ah, about Dave and Scott being innocent, if they were the only two that knew about the shield request (and assuming your request was granted), and that the 1k sons were in fact trying to night kill somebody, there is a good chance that they would not try to kill you, knowing that there was a good possibility you would be shielded (thinking others would also see the post). As this was not the case, it leads to believe, at least for the moment, that they are innocent.

TherVadam wrote:Ah, about Dave and Scott being innocent, if they were the only two that knew about the shield request (and assuming your request was granted), and that the 1k sons were in fact trying to night kill somebody, there is a good chance that they would not try to kill you, knowing that there was a good possibility you would be shielded (thinking others would also see the post). As this was not the case, it leads to believe, at least for the moment, that they are innocent.

Because I said it was likely that A_F had been targetted? I think I see where you're coming from, but to my eyes, the logic is a bit odd. Ok, so it might not benefit me to question my defender, but could you try to explain this a bit better? Am I right with my theory of where you're coming from?

No I'm not saying that it was because you said that it was likely that A_F had been targetted that I thought you were innocent. I believe you and Scott are innocent because you two saw the message about requesting a shield. My (perhaps faulty) reasoning is based on the premise that the 1k sons actually attempted a night-kill. If not, then I have no reason to trust or distrust anybody, so I go with this conclusion for now. If the 1k sons attempted a night-kill, I'm going to assume that they tried to kill A_F. Why? Because it was the most likely, especially considering that he must have been shielded to have survived. Now, if you and Scott had seen the message specifically requesting for the shield, while would you try to night-kill that person? Therefore, I think (for the time being) that you two are not 1k sons.

This is going to stink slightly of the Pot calling the Kettle black, but I am going to Vote for Lord of Battles on the grounds he is barely saying anything.

I'll join with Fifty and vote for Lord of Battles. Let's see if we can get some other people talking here.

At this point, voting for the quiet ones seems the best idea. We lose more by not lynching than lynching an innocent. And if that innocent is mostly inactive, then we've perhaps lost the least possible. If he turns up scum, all the better.

At least try to get a reason?

If it comes up to the final day or so I will join it to but still voting for those not talking isn't that good of an idea. We don't know if anything is going on IRL.
Give him a day or so first. If he hasn't posted by then I'll join in.

TherVadam wrote:No I'm not saying that it was because you said that it was likely that A_F had been targetted that I thought you were innocent. I believe you and Scott are innocent because you two saw the message about requesting a shield. My (perhaps faulty) reasoning is based on the premise that the 1k sons actually attempted a night-kill. If not, then I have no reason to trust or distrust anybody, so I go with this conclusion for now. If the 1k sons attempted a night-kill, I'm going to assume that they tried to kill A_F. Why? Because it was the most likely, especially considering that he must have been shielded to have survived. Now, if you and Scott had seen the message specifically requesting for the shield, while would you try to night-kill that person? Therefore, I think (for the time being) that you two are not 1k sons.

This isn't very strong logic, but at this point in time it might be all we have.

I'd like to hear a contribution from both Lord of Battles and Manchu about who they suspect more out of Arctik_Firangi and Orkeosaurus.

Personally, I don't think AF or Orkeo are Sons, but if I had to go for one, I would say Orkeo is more likely, as AF seems to be genuinely trying to come up with ideas and floundering. At one stage, AF Seemed to be simply flinging accusations for no good reason, but it seems now that he is actually trying to think things through, just with minimal information.

VikingScott wrote:
If it comes up to the final day or so I will join it to but still voting for those not talking isn't that good of an idea. We don't know if anything is going on IRL.
Give him a day or so first. If he hasn't posted by then I'll join in.

Now I don't mean to be a parrot, but I'll take the same stance... My mind is far from made up about anything yet.

Fifty wrote:I'd like to hear a contribution from both Lord of Battles and Manchu about who they suspect more out of Arctik_Firangi and Orkeosaurus.

I've actually have been thinking of this a lot since my last big posts and I have change my mind a bit. You see, I think either of them could be. And I think there are equal chances that either of them actually are. (From my perspective, it is the same probability that you yourself are scum, Fifty, or that I am as seen from your perspective.) Let's assume for a second that both A_F and Orkeo are scum. That means that one scum is talking a lot and another is being more reserved. Or let's assume that both are town: i.e., one townie is talking a lot and another is being more reserved. And aren't both scenarios equally probable? So you see, the mere fact of talking a little or a lot really has no bearing on the probability of one being scum or town.

I have heretofore thought of this as question of tactics. Is it more helpful to town or scum to talk a lot? There is no definite answer: scum can use lots of chatter to distract and mislead just as easily as town can use the chatter to investigate. And given how confusing many of the posts have been, I really have little ability to distinguish between a genuine attempt to solve the mystery and puffery aimed at throwing me off the scent.

The next tactical question therefore is whether it is more dangerous for scum to talk frequently or for town to talk frequently? Again, there is no definite answer. As I myself said some time ago regarding previous games, being loud has gotten me killed as scum and as town. I have previously argued that A_F was risking too much to be scum. But there's really not much of an argument to support that. A_F could easily be posting so much for the very reason of building a case for his own innocence. (Being more reserved, however, is less complicated: whether as scum or as town, the only reason to post infrequently is to dodge attention. Notice that almost ALL talk today has been about A_F in one form or another.)

As time runs out, the only answer I can see is trying to get more minds working on the problem while getting a lynch underway. I say we all vote for people who have been contributing the least. This will either get them to contribute OR lead to a lynch. One way or another, town needs both of those things to happen. This is a non-controversial point: not lynching each day is better for scum than town. My current conclusion: dithering at this point, or even casting ineffectual splinter votes, is suspicious.

Well, the last point is a valid one.

As for the rest of it - more talk is most beneficial to whichever group has the best at interpreting that talk. As the town is normally bigger, town SHOULD have the best interpreters, thus more talk = good for town.

Of course, if the scum are excellent deceivers, or town are crap at analysis, you are correct.

My experience with these sort of games is that the amount of talking that goes on by any particular individual is influenced far more by their personality as a poster and the circumstances they're in outside of the game than by a conscious commitment to talking or staying quiet.

Well if we are going to be voting for people who do not contribute much, I will Vote: Inquisitor_Syphonius , because I know he can contribute, although he is not doing so.

Just because he got lucky last game and did a mojor contribution doesn't mean he can work out another major contribution again like that. Unless he's got some kind of investigation role

Although admitadly... He hasn't contibuted too much..

Alright, back to contribute, after my last post I waited a while with no one posting so I... guess I waited a longer time than it seemed.

I've only had one real theory so far, and while touching it up someone ended up posting it before me.

Well, I guess a good a start as any would be the people that have been opposed to the targets we thought would be night killed.

So, I thought Arctik_Firangi, Orkeosaurus, Dastardly_Dave, or Manchu were going to be night-killed, since as I agree, the less contributing the better for the scum. (Oh noes!)

So, who was opposed to them? (Other than me )

Vote Count 2.2 - "does this get us any further in deciding who to lynch?"

0 - Manchu
2 - Lord of battles (Fifty Manchu )
0 - Arctik_Firangi
1 - Dastardly Dave (Arctik_Firangi )
0 - Paul Atreides
0 - VikingScott
0 - TherVadam
1 - Inquisitor_Syphonious (TherVadam )
0 - Gathering Storm
0 - Fifty
0 - Orkeosaurus



Not Voting

Dastardly Dave
Paul Atreides
Orkeosaurus
VikingScott
Gathering Storm
Lord of battles
Inquisitor_Syphonious


With 11 alive it is 6 to lynch.

Deadline Countdown

Awesome activity burst guys, keep it up to make Thor happy (and to perhaps earn Internet cookies, the only true non-fattening and totally healthy cookie)

OCC my computer is broken and will be fixed tomorrow (i am on a library computer right now)

I have to say that Fifty has been out for me since the start, I believe him to be a traitor intent on getting rid of russ's wolves
Vote: Fifty

No use hounding (pun!) someone for computer troubles. Unvote: Lord of Battles.

Wow.
I was right sort of.

Huh, yeah, I forgot, I actually voted for you in the RVS too, didn't it? No particular meaning to that. This was simply a totally random vote, and this one was because you have not been posting.

I'll Unvote: Lord of Battles now and hope you get your computer fixed to start offering some opnions soon.

OCC: the guy came today and everything is running (slowly thought, damn crappy computer; at least I still have access to Dakka!)

Fifty you asked about my view Arctik. From the first day, we were on the whole he is a sorcerer thing, and I maintain that, I was not that surprised that he survived, although the no night kill is really got me thinking of some type of power is being used. I think that they are up to something.
So I will
Unvote: Fifty
Vote: Arctic_Firangi

Would you mind elaborating, LoB?

In light of how important it is for scum to kill every night, I agree that the no night kill thing is certain evidence of the use of some power. Given that we have seen it in past games, I think the lack of night kill is most likely the result of a shielding power.

It has been suggested that having no night kill is the price of some kind of scum "charge-up" power, but that seems less credible: not only because we haven't seen it before but also because the scum can presumably kill every night. Two possibilities emerge regarding a charge-up power:

(1) There is no charge-up power. Scum in this game simply cannot kill every night.

(2) There is a charge-up power. Scum trade killing one night for something significantly better.

I very much doubt that the first possibility is true. That leave the second, which I also feel is unlikely. The only trade off that would make sense from their perspective is to skip one kill to get three or more the next night. More than three seems totally ludicrous so I think we can definitely rule that out. I think killing three town in one night is also unfair so I doubt it's that either but I guess we will find out. It has been suggested that such a charge-up could do something other than kill but that also seems wasteful. After all, scum win by killing the rest of us. Anything that drags out our deaths without then significantly speeding them up soon after woks against them.

So I conclude that there was a target last night and he was shielded, either by himself or by another. But this doesn't lead me to any further conclusions about who is scum.

Nothing? For a whole day? You people realize we're running out of time, right? I guess I'll jump on board the only bandwagon we even begin to have and vote: Arctik_Firangi. Our best talker has gone quite for three whole days. What's going on?