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I'm sorry, did that post make any sense whatsoever? In my mind, it did, but now I can't tell. Would you guys like for me to reword it?

Sorry, been preparing for a camping trip, planned to arrive home friday evening.

Manchu wrote:Aren't options 1 and 2 equally likely? Option 3 seems the least likely to me, as missing a first night kill does not create enough advantages to outweigh having one less of us around to contend with.

Because the obvious target for both a shield and a nightkill was Arctik_Firangi. If he had been shielded and not nightkilled, someone else would have died. If he had been nightkilled but not shielded then he would have died. If he was neither nightkilled OR shielded, then what are the chances of both the scum team and the doctor type role picking exactly the same player to target? It just seems quite unlikely to me. Of course if one person has a self targeting shield ability it becomes more likely.

However, bear in mind that the Scum team in effect already had a nightkill, albeit one perpetrated by town. I find it perfectly reasonable to assume that in order to confuse us, the scum team targeted no-one for their nightkill so as to leave us with one less lead to go on.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:As far as I know we have nothing to go off but our respective behaviours yesterday. All we know now is that for whatever reason, no night-kill occurred. The people I find most suspicious at this time are the ones who are confident that I was targetted.

Syphonius, Dave, and TherVadam.

Why do you find it suspiscious that people are confident you were targeted? Considering the circumstances and the fact that you specifically asked for a shield to be put on you it seems more likely than other options.

Besides, I never said I was sure you were targetted, I only said it was more likely.

Orkeosaurus wrote:4. The scum are using some sort of ability that requires them to give up a turn of killing. Perhaps not too likely, but you never know.

it doesn't seem too likely that there would be an ability like that. You don't ever know of course but it seems stupid to add a role like that.

5. The scum forgot to vote entirely?

I highly doubt it. They had two days and they all presumably have an interest in winning the game. Possible perhaps, but extremely unlikely.

Dastardly Dave wrote:

Manchu wrote:Aren't options 1 and 2 equally likely? Option 3 seems the least likely to me, as missing a first night kill does not create enough advantages to outweigh having one less of us around to contend with.

Because the obvious target for both a shield and a nightkill was Arctik_Firangi. If he had been shielded and not nightkilled, someone else would have died. If he had been nightkilled but not shielded then he would have died. If he was neither nightkilled OR shielded, then what are the chances of both the scum team and the doctor type role picking exactly the same player to target? It just seems quite unlikely to me. Of course if one person has a self targeting shield ability it becomes more likely.

However, bear in mind that the Scum team in effect already had a nightkill, albeit one perpetrated by town. I find it perfectly reasonable to assume that in order to confuse us, the scum team targeted no-one for their nightkill so as to leave us with one less lead to go on.

By all means, ignore the possibility that Orkeo was targeted. If you're scum you're in denial, and if you're town you're disregarding a valid point.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:As far as I know we have nothing to go off but our respective behaviours yesterday. All we know now is that for whatever reason, no night-kill occurred. The people I find most suspicious at this time are the ones who are confident that I was targetted.

Syphonius, Dave, and TherVadam.

Why do you find it suspiscious that people are confident you were targeted? Considering the circumstances and the fact that you specifically asked for a shield to be put on you it seems more likely than other options.

Besides, I never said I was sure you were targetted, I only said it was more likely.

We have very little real evidence of anything, but my reasoning should have been clear. It is an easy conclusion to jump to, but too obvious at the same time. Now, are you accusing me of anything?

I'm glad you saw my post before I edited it. I'm glad you mentioned it. It makes the fact that I'm not dead all the more poignant. Thor hasn't clarified whether or not we should post after the final lynch vote before he updates, but for those who didn't see it, I basically stated that I was a highly likely target for a night kill and that a block might be in order. I removed the post five minutes later for the reason given. Up until now I presume that most of everyone else didn't know this, but I was hoping someone would bring it up. I'm glad it was you.

Orkeosaurus wrote:4. The scum are using some sort of ability that requires them to give up a turn of killing. Perhaps not too likely, but you never know.

it doesn't seem too likely that there would be an ability like that. You don't ever know of course but it seems stupid to add a role like that.

5. The scum forgot to vote entirely?

I highly doubt it. They had two days and they all presumably have an interest in winning the game. Possible perhaps, but extremely unlikely.

We have had a past game where a certain scum-role could pull off a double kill if he skipped a night-kill. It was a slightly different format game, but not all so 'stupid'. Regardless, I don't think it quite works with standard-format mafia since I presume the scum have to vote for their kill, rather than having the independent actions they did in the game I'm thinking of.

EDIT:
I'm willing to kick this one off. Dave, I think you're scum. Your turn.
Vote: Dastardly Dave

It seems likely for scum to target Orkeo to imcriminate you.
But how do you know that it happened?
I know it's probably a safe bet and all but I'm just saying.

Hmm... Do you think the one who shielded (if that's what happened) thought far ahead enough to protect orkeo, knowing anti-town would try kill him to set up Arctic firangi? Not impossible I guess, but no, probably not.

I was very relieved that no one was night killed.

It was already pretty awful that we had lost Not_u and the_ferret, so another dead wolf would not have been good.

I'm holding onto my vote until any more evidence arises.

Same really.

@Paul: It's a bit of a long-shot that wouldn't really pay off this early. Later on in the game when there is less people it could work.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:

Dastardly Dave wrote:

Manchu wrote:Aren't options 1 and 2 equally likely? Option 3 seems the least likely to me, as missing a first night kill does not create enough advantages to outweigh having one less of us around to contend with.

Because the obvious target for both a shield and a nightkill was Arctik_Firangi. If he had been shielded and not nightkilled, someone else would have died. If he had been nightkilled but not shielded then he would have died. If he was neither nightkilled OR shielded, then what are the chances of both the scum team and the doctor type role picking exactly the same player to target? It just seems quite unlikely to me. Of course if one person has a self targeting shield ability it becomes more likely.

However, bear in mind that the Scum team in effect already had a nightkill, albeit one perpetrated by town. I find it perfectly reasonable to assume that in order to confuse us, the scum team targeted no-one for their nightkill so as to leave us with one less lead to go on.

By all means, ignore the possibility that Orkeo was targeted. If you're scum you're in denial, and if you're town you're disregarding a valid point.

Where exactly in that post did I 'ignore the possiblity that Orkeo was targeted'? I certainly can't find it, and I wrote the damn thing. There IS a possiblity that Orkeo was targetted, but then like you said, perhaps a little two obvious that it was done to incriminate yourself? if you were scum, and you had been voting for someone for the better part of day 1, you sure as hell wouldn't kill him off 1st night, that'd be too obvious. Besides, you were certain Orkeo was scum day 1, so if he is scum, why would he be targetted?

Arctik_Firangi wrote:

Dastardly Dave wrote:

Arctik_Firangi wrote:As far as I know we have nothing to go off but our respective behaviours yesterday. All we know now is that for whatever reason, no night-kill occurred. The people I find most suspicious at this time are the ones who are confident that I was targetted.

Syphonius, Dave, and TherVadam.

Why do you find it suspiscious that people are confident you were targeted? Considering the circumstances and the fact that you specifically asked for a shield to be put on you it seems more likely than other options.

Besides, I never said I was sure you were targetted, I only said it was more likely.

We have very little real evidence of anything, but my reasoning should have been clear. It is an easy conclusion to jump to, but too obvious at the same time. Now, are you accusing me of anything?

Not yet, no.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:I'm glad you saw my post before I edited it. I'm glad you mentioned it. It makes the fact that I'm not dead all the more poignant. Thor hasn't clarified whether or not we should post after the final lynch vote before he updates, but for those who didn't see it, I basically stated that I was a highly likely target for a night kill and that a block might be in order. I removed the post five minutes later for the reason given. Up until now I presume that most of everyone else didn't know this, but I was hoping someone would bring it up. I'm glad it was you.

Thanks, I think.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:

Dastardly Dave wrote:

Orkeosaurus wrote:4. The scum are using some sort of ability that requires them to give up a turn of killing. Perhaps not too likely, but you never know.

it doesn't seem too likely that there would be an ability like that. You don't ever know of course but it seems stupid to add a role like that.

5. The scum forgot to vote entirely?

I highly doubt it. They had two days and they all presumably have an interest in winning the game. Possible perhaps, but extremely unlikely.

We have had a past game where a certain scum-role could pull off a double kill if he skipped a night-kill. It was a slightly different format game, but not all so 'stupid'. Regardless, I don't think it quite works with standard-format mafia since I presume the scum have to vote for their kill, rather than having the independent actions they did in the game I'm thinking of.

Ok, so I was wrong. That comes from my relative inexperience of Mafia games, and you certainly can't build a case against me from it.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:EDIT:
I'm willing to kick this one off. Dave, I think you're scum. Your turn.
Vote: Dastardly Dave

Okay, you think I'm scum. Give me a list of why you think this, in a clear and ordered manner. Of course if you do the same as yesterday and accuse me without actually explaining why as you did with Orkeo you'll find it difficult to get me lynched.

Can someone explain how there is any more evidence today than there was yesterday?

Further, if someone had died last night, what more evidence would we have--excepting of course that the deceased was not scum--because of that?

Paul Atreides wrote:Hmm... Do you think the one who shielded (if that's what happened) thought far ahead enough to protect orkeo, knowing anti-town would try kill him to set up Arctic firangi? Not impossible I guess, but no, probably not.

Thar be evidence in this here post, Manchu. I hope he's not on your team. There is no more public evidence now than there was last night. That much is obvious. 'Public' is the key word so go figure. You're a smart enough player to know what I'm talking about.

Dave, I'm not putting words in you mouth, it's just that you're stating the obvious. I wasn't killed last night. That doesn't mean that I was targetted or shielded - it means someone was, or that there was no night kill for whatever reason. The first one is the most likely because it involves a role that appears in 90% of Mafia games, despite your insistence that it 'seems unlikely'. A townie would be pleased with this circumstance, and you just seem to be upset and determined to cast doubt.

I've been nothing but noisy. If I've been wrong in my accusations, then there is no reason for scum to be concerned. I was one of the first voters for the_ferrett, but his disastrous lynch was primarily due to the time constraints of the day phase. While unfortunate, it was unavoidable - I made it pretty clear that I voted for him in order to provoke, but that turned into a lynch pretty quickly. If the_ferrett had explained his role yesterday before the inevitable lynch occured, he would have been the obvious choice for a 'doctor' role, possibly avoiding any town deaths whatsoever... since both Dave and Paul find it difficult to conceive a doctor role could use logic, they probably would have tried to night kill him anyway.

EDIT: I'd like to conduct another survey. Who was aware that I suggested that I should be shielded during yesterday's day phase before Dave mentioned it? Please be honest, it's very relevant.

I guess what I am saying, A_F, is that expecting the scum to slip up and unintentionally reveal themselves in their posts can easily turn into reading slip ups into people's posts. I think that kind of reading into people's post is what Dave is accusing you of and I have to admit that's what it looked like you were doing with Orkeo yesterday.

But even if one isn't just reading too much into others' posts, trying to find where the scum accidentally admit to being scum doesn't seem like a sound plan. If anything, it sounds pretty scummy--not only because it doesn't produce any convincing arguments (much less conclusions) but also because it fosters suspicion amid town (a la yesterday's catastrophe).

Right now I'd say you have yourself in a difficult position. Despite what you've said about only voting to provoke, you have to admit that the_ferret's blood is on your hands. If you are scum, that was awfully clever work, especially taking two others with him (which I still don't understand). You fostered a lot of suspicion and that suspicion took its toll. To look at it from another perspective, if the_ferret turned out to be scum (and you really are town) wouldn't you be tempted to give those of us who didn't vote for him a bit of the "I told you so" treatment? Or at least claim that it was good evidence that you are actually town--because scum would not vote for scum--rather than claiming it was just a coincidence of mistiming?

That looks bad, sure, but I still think you're town. I went after Orkeo for the same reason you were voting the_ferret, after all--namely, to provoke a defense. It was all that could be done yesterday. To be honest, it's still all we can hope to do today. And, if Orkeo died and turned out to be town, it'd look just as bad for me today. So I can understand that your role in killing the_ferret is not a sure sign of guilt.

What strikes me as some evidence of innocence is that you seem genuinely interested in solving the puzzle. As I said yesterday, you've really stuck your neck out. In my experience, that isn't a great way to hide as scum. So maybe you are who you say you are.

But then why turn the vote on Dave? He's doing the same thing by talking and arguing, which--for the same reasons--strikes me as some evidence of innocence. It can't be to provoke him into getting involved because he's already doing that. Maybe you could clarify your thought process here?

In summary:

(1) The_ferret's death (and by association, the others' deaths also) could be taken as a sign of A-F's guilt.

(2) I think it's a fairly neutral piece of information. In fact, it's more likely to have been a mere coincidence than the fruit of some master plan. (Occam's Razor: a coincidence is a simpler explanation than assuming that a complex master plan actually came together on the first day.)

(3) A_F is very chatty.

(4) My way of thinking is that scum have more to loose from being chatty than town. Therefore it is more likely the case that A_F is town rather than scum.

(5) BUT A_F has voted for Dave who is also chatty and therefore also more likely to be town than scum. Why?

Arctik_Firangi wrote:I'm glad you saw my post before I edited it. I'm glad you mentioned it. It makes the fact that I'm not dead all the more poignant. Thor hasn't clarified whether or not we should post after the final lynch vote before he updates,

Just to clarify - any period between the needed number of votes being reached and me posting confirmation of those votes is called twilight.
Talking is allowed in twilight - even from people who have been lynched.

After I post confirmation of the lynch being reached conversation should stop as that signifies the true end of the Day Phase.

@A_F I saw the bit about the shield.

@Arctik_Firangi: Actually, I didn't see that :s, but I think I realize what you're trying to do. I'll post my thoughts after everyone else finishes posting.

Manchu wrote:I guess what I am saying, A_F, is that expecting the scum to slip up and unintentionally reveal themselves in their posts can easily turn into reading slip ups into people's posts. I think that kind of reading into people's post is what Dave is accusing you of and I have to admit that's what it looked like you were doing with Orkeo yesterday.

But even if one isn't just reading too much into others' posts, trying to find where the scum accidentally admit to being scum doesn't seem like a sound plan. If anything, it sounds pretty scummy--not only because it doesn't produce any convincing arguments (much less conclusions) but also because it fosters suspicion amid town (a la yesterday's catastrophe).

Thanks. You are wise to say 'what it looked like you were doing' in relation to Orkeo. I was testing a point and dropped it quickly. Provocation is still key, in my opinion, and no one could have expected what happened with yesterday's lynch. Convincing arguments are hard to create in this game - our last clash was proof at least of that - because proof itself can only ever be personal, and even then it is rare.

Right now I'd say you have yourself in a difficult position. Despite what you've said about only voting to provoke, you have to admit that the_ferret's blood is on your hands. If you are scum, that was awfully clever work, especially taking two others with him (which I still don't understand). You fostered a lot of suspicion and that suspicion took its toll. To look at it from another perspective, if the_ferret turned out to be scum (and you really are town) wouldn't you be tempted to give those of us who didn't vote for him a bit of the "I told you so" treatment? Or at least claim that it was good evidence that you are actually town--because scum would not vote for scum--rather than claiming it was just a coincidence of mistiming?

I am in a difficult position but as I said yesterday - blaze of glory. My neck is a sacrifice I'm willing to make. Town inaction being an advantage is one of only two constants that scum can depend on, the other being that they know who each other are. I was the third person to vote for the_ferrett, and although I have been vocal, I cannot claim the entire responsibility for the tragedy of his death. I really don't know what to think of your claim that there is blood on my hands. Of all the players in this, you are the one I'd least like to have to oppose. You aren't an enemy I'd like to have, regardless of my alignment. Use this to your advantage as you will - I'll be sure to keep a close eye.

That looks bad, sure, but I still think you're town. I went after Orkeo for the same reason you were voting the_ferret, after all--namely, to provoke a defense. It was all that could be done yesterday. To be honest, it's still all we can hope to do today. And, if Orkeo died and turned out to be town, it'd look just as bad for me today. So I can understand that your role in killing the_ferret is not a sure sign of guilt.

What strikes me as some evidence of innocence is that you seem genuinely interested in solving the puzzle. As I said yesterday, you've really stuck your neck out. In my experience, that isn't a great way to hide as scum. So maybe you are who you say you are.

But then why turn the vote on Dave? He's doing the same thing by talking and arguing, which--for the same reasons--strikes me as some evidence of innocence. It can't be to provoke him into getting involved because he's already doing that. Maybe you could clarify your thought process here?

In summary:

(1) The_ferret's death (and by association, the others' deaths also) could be taken as a sign of A-F's guilt.

(2) I think it's a fairly neutral piece of information. In fact, it's more likely to have been a mere coincidence than the fruit of some master plan. (Occam's Razor: a coincidence is a simpler explanation than assuming that a complex master plan actually came together on the first day.)

(3) A_F is very chatty.

(4) My way of thinking is that scum have more to loose from being chatty than town. Therefore it is more likely the case that A_F is town rather than scum.

(5) BUT A_F has voted for Dave who is also chatty and therefore also more likely to be town than scum. Why?

I don't think that your earlier case against Orkeo overshadows my current position. Yes, my neck has been right out there, but being an 'obvious target' is my intention. It could backfire and result in my being lynched or night killed, but it's a risk I'm perfectly willing to take because my death will not result in a double-kill, important role death or otherwise. I have voted for Dave with intent to provoke - as you have said, we have little else to go off - but you have stated that he is 'likely to be town' on the simple basis that he has been 'chatty'. I turn your question back - why defend him before he has defended himself?

I'll grant you this... Occam's Razor does not apply to my current design unless made a point of, and then it proves itself by means of lack of real evidence. Self-evident cyclical arguments are as easy to make as any other when there is no proof, and when they pertain to a lack of evidence. You know that there is no real public evidence in this game, and we have had this argument before. Why shouldn't I have a strategy or plan? Why should I not draw attention to myself, when my death is of lesser consequence than that of certain other town players?
The 13th Company role was for the most part a liability, and we can with some confidence assume that there are no other roles that are technically detrimental to town. The only advantage was that both n0t_u and the_ferrett knew that each other were town, and it would have been hard for either of them to benefit the rest of us without exposing that liability. Any possible advantage from that role is lost to us, and is irrelevant.

The point that I was a likely target for night-kill seems completely irrelevant to me, and not worth discussing. The fact that no one has died is a blessing for the time being, and we can gain nothing by discussing it because we cannot suppose who might have attacked or blocked me in any case.

Um.... Occam's Razor?

Just means that the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one. Am at work atm, A_F, and will reply more fully later on when I have more time.

Yes, Occam's Razor. If Manchu brought it up in reference to the_ferrett's demise, then yes, it was coincidence. At the same time, he implicates that I was responsible for it, coincidence or not.

This form of logic does not and can not apply to all things, by means of the very grounds on which the premise is founded. Simple explanations are as without foundation as any other if basic proof does not exist, and dwelling on them is pointless. In this situation, only scum could presumably act with any reason because only the scum know who is on their side - n0t_u and the_ferrett are a proven exception, and are now beyond context.
I choose not to put great faith in simple explanations, simply because I believe that they can be easily used as a distraction. Even if those explanations lead to people believing that I am innocent, it is only a belief.

Out of all the people here I am surprised I haven't been blamed for the mis-lynch. I put the last vote on after all.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:

Paul Atreides wrote:Hmm... Do you think the one who shielded (if that's what happened) thought far ahead enough to protect orkeo, knowing anti-town would try kill him to set up Arctic firangi? Not impossible I guess, but no, probably not.

Thar be evidence in this here post, Manchu. I hope he's not on your team. There is no more public evidence now than there was last night. That much is obvious. 'Public' is the key word so go figure. You're a smart enough player to know what I'm talking about.

Well, you'll have to forgive me then, because I am an idiot, and I don't. Please explain will you?

I've been nothing but noisy. If I've been wrong in my accusations, then there is no reason for scum to be concerned. I was one of the first voters for the_ferrett, but his disastrous lynch was primarily due to the time constraints of the day phase. While unfortunate, it was unavoidable - I made it pretty clear that I voted for him in order to provoke, but that turned into a lynch pretty quickly. If the_ferrett had explained his role yesterday before the inevitable lynch occured, he would have been the obvious choice for a 'doctor' role, possibly avoiding any town deaths whatsoever... since both Dave and Paul find it difficult to conceive a doctor role could use logic, they probably would have tried to night kill him anyway.

I would? Well, how about that. Were did I say anything that implied a doctor couldn't use logic? I merely mentioned one of many possibilities, a small one at that. If you reread it, you might notice I myself don't believe it. Or maybe you ment something else. And why am I and Dave traitor scum now? I sorry, I really am, but you've lost me, and I'd love to hear what you ment.

EDIT: I'd like to conduct another survey. Who was aware that I suggested that I should be shielded during yesterday's day phase before Dave mentioned it? Please be honest, it's very relevant.

I didn't hear of it, before dave mentioned it.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:EDIT: I'd like to conduct another survey. Who was aware that I suggested that I should be shielded during yesterday's day phase before Dave mentioned it? Please be honest, it's very relevant.

I hadn't heard of it until Dave theorised it.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:EDIT: I'd like to conduct another survey. Who was aware that I suggested that I should be shielded during yesterday's day phase before Dave mentioned it? Please be honest, it's very relevant.

I wasn't.

Thor665 wrote:

Arctik_Firangi wrote:I'm glad you saw my post before I edited it. I'm glad you mentioned it. It makes the fact that I'm not dead all the more poignant. Thor hasn't clarified whether or not we should post after the final lynch vote before he updates,

Just to clarify - any period between the needed number of votes being reached and me posting confirmation of those votes is called twilight.
Talking is allowed in twilight - even from people who have been lynched.

Further clarification: once the necessary amount of votes is reached, there's still no way the lynch won't go through, correct? You can't unvote once twilight starts?

Correct.

Well just got back, skimmed through, don't know what's going on.

That's the last trip for me though, i'll commit to the rest of the game.

Going to read later, but I want to answer a few things:

A_F: Something or another about knowing you were targetted, didn't know you were, someone suggested it, and I just kind of followed along.

Who was aware that I suggested that I should be shielded during yesterday's day phase before Dave mentioned it?

Slipped by me.

The only thing I believe we can use to seperate slip-ups in scum and town posts is knowing things they had no way of, except a power.

Granted, a townie may also have some sort of ability, but scum is equally, if not more likely.

/snooze

Vote Count 2.1 - "I think you're scum. Your turn."

0 - Manchu
0 - Lord of battles
0 - Arctik_Firangi
1 - Dastardly Dave (Arctik_Firangi )
0 - Paul Atreides
0 - VikingScott
0 - TherVadam
0 - Inquisitor_Syphonious
0 - Gathering Storm
0 - Fifty
0 - Orkeosaurus



Not Voting

Dastardly Dave
Fifty
TherVadam
Paul Atreides
Orkeosaurus
VikingScott
Manchu
Gathering Storm
Lord of battles
Inquisitor_Syphonious


With 11 alive it is 6 to lynch.

Deadline Countdown

Right, I am back from a longer holiday than I expected and this is all very very interesting.

I wonder if anyone is brave or foolish enough to claim credit for the night-shield? It would probably be a death sentence, unless there is another shielder and that second shielder both believes them and decides to shield them.

Now, Arctik_Firangi has explicitly stated he does not have a power. This means he is either pursuing an excellent course of action for a townie - i.e. he is drawing fire away from those who do and stimulating conversation, or he is a Son and wants to avoid claiming to be something, and then have the real person who has that role know he is almost certainly lying.

I... I... I... just had a thought. Oh god, I can't say what it is though, or... Oh damnit... Er... Right, well, nevermind... Check the rules. Number 3. Lots more power roles. How many do we think, exactly? How many or how few "normal Space Wolves" might there be? Could there even be multiples of the same power roles? Now, if there are more power roles than normal, that would also lead me to suspect that there are at least three Sons, maybe four, to even things out. If I am right, we could already be at 7 vs. 4. That would be bad.

Also, reading Thor's comments about this game, and being aware he is a cunning bastich, I think it is very possible that the Sons used some cunning power that prevents them doing a night-kill rather than that someone was shielded or the scum forgot to vote. The more I think on it, the more sure I become. I have a really bad feeling that they are saving up their night-kills to either do several at once, or turn one of us into a Son aswell, or something like that... I would not be surprised if two of us die in the next night phase, unless some successful shielding takes place.

Damnit Thor, whether any of my speculations are even close, you've achieved your aims of making it all mysterious simply by saying you want it to be mysterious, regardless of what actual powers you have given out.

Another idea immediately strikes me - What if they gave up their night kills to learn about who has what power roles?

I mentioned your fear earlier... Since there are 'more power roles,' I can only presume that all of the 1ksons have powers... and I reckon there are probably three as well. Worse still, we can only guess at what those powers might be. It might be that they could skip a kill to gather information (although in a previous game I had a single-target version of this that required no such sacrifice - I don't think it would be OP as an individual scum power) - to 'channel', so to speak - perhaps this could be a global block of night abilities instead (pinned down units in flavour text), but it's too early for anyone to say anything in that regard.

We don't even know what the Space Wolf powers are except that Thor has mentioned a 'night talk thread' or something... possibly benefitting both sides, since he bothered to mention it?
I presume that scum are allowed to communicate at night anyway, right? The flavour text mentioned communications between Space Wolves... we can't know what is and isn't flavour. Bah.

Paul, I'm not really implying that you and Dave have a disbelief in logic - that's too ridiculous to take seriously. Provocation, provocation, provocation! What else do we have? Other than Fifty's contribution, who is actually doing anything? What can we do?

I'm currently drawing from the thin premise that everyone seems to think that I was the most likely target - I think that the scum would be aware of this too, and presume that if there was a doctor role he would protect me. I might have been targetted and shielded, which is great, but too obvious. There might be a skip-a-kill in play, but we can't know.

My alternative guess was that Orkeo would be targetted because that would make me look bad, but he's not dead either so it seems unlikely.
VikingScott actually thinks it's 'likely' and a 'safe bet' - he also saw that I had asked for a shield, and if he was scum he would have been able to advise his comrades not to target me. Dave could be in the same position. Anyone could be denying it.

EDIT: TherVadam, would you like to make your contribution?