Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Orkeosaurus wrote:Fifty wouldn't have to have known Arctik wasn't town, he only needed to have more of a reason to try and protect Arctik than anyone else.

But we know that if Fifty did shield A_F it would have been totally random, based on no more or less information than the rest of us had at the time. Fifty shielding A_F does not equal Fifty knowing whether A_F is scum or not.

We dom't know for sure that Arctik was targeted on Day 1. However, he seems the most likely candidate for a shield, as he seemed - to me anyways - the most obvious target.

If A_F is such an obvious target then why isn't he dead yet? Barring some scum having more than one night kill and him having some special self-shield ability, this argument holds no water. If A_F was the most obvious target on night one then why not also on night two? I'm not seeing a lot of reliable logic behind this argument so far.

Arctik has also implied, if I recall correctly, that he knows for sure that he was targeted somehow; a role-ability probably. Which only makes me more curious as to what role Arctik has (or says to have), and what its power is.

Even if A_F does have such a power, he can only prove it by dying. That puts him in a pretty safe position to claim he knows that he's been tagreted and even to claim that he knows this because of a power. My dilemma is that, from my observations, it's just as likely that he's lying about having any pro-town special powers as not.

Manchu wrote:But we know that if Fifty did shield A_F it would have been totally random, based on no more or less information than the rest of us had at the time. Fifty shielding A_F does not equal Fifty knowing whether A_F is scum or not.

True. But if Fifty shielded Arctik and Arctik was scum, then we have no explanation for the lack of a night kill.

If A_F is such an obvious target then why isn't he dead yet? Barring some scum having more than one night kill and him having some special self-shield ability, this argument holds no water. If A_F was the most obvious target on night one then why not also on night two? I'm not seeing a lot of reliable logic behind this argument so far.

Arctik was the most obvious target on Day 1 because he was the loudest, really. He would quickly lose that status if any more information came up, which brings us back to the question of how Fifty was killed on day two. If the scum had a reveal power (either targeted or working when the block was successful) then that would lead them to go after Fifty. Another possibility would be that the scum decided to abandon trying to kill Arctik for some reason, possibly because they thought he may be shielded the next night as well, or because they found his investigative abilities more useful to their own side than dangerous.

Even if A_F does have such a power, he can only prove it by dying. That puts him in a pretty safe position to claim he knows that he's been tagreted and even to claim that he knows this because of a power. My dilemma is that, from my observations, it's just as likely that he's lying about having any pro-town special powers as not.

Well, if he reveals the name of his role, he runs the risk of someone having a duplicate of that role, which would make it likely that one of them is lying. Plus, if he reveals any information he has now, there's no way we can lose it if he does die.

Orkeosaurus wrote:True. But if Fifty shielded Arctik and Arctik was scum, then we have no explanation for the lack of a night kill.

That's a great point that I didn't think of. But that still leaves the other, more damning assumption: that A_F was indeed the target for night one. With the current information, I cannot agree that A_F was a prime target on day one. That ties a little too conveniently into a lot of important arguments and I think it will take a better argument than "they just didn't want to after day 1."

Another possibility would be that the scum decided to abandon trying to kill Arctik for some reason, possibly because they thought he may be shielded the next night as well, or because they found his investigative abilities more useful to their own side than dangerous.

Wait what? Investigative abilities? Where did that come from?

Well, if he reveals the name of his role, he runs the risk of someone having a duplicate of that role, which would make it likely that one of them is lying.

Okay, agreed. Let him tell us what his special ability is.

But this has been a productive conversation that I wish we had started much earlier in the day. So far I see that:

- Paul knows or at least assumes as factual that A_F was targeted on Night 1, something only scum could know (barring an unknown special power).

- Orkeo knows/assumes/postulates that A_F has pro-town investigative powers.

Manchu wrote:

Orkeosaurus wrote:Another possibility would be that the scum decided to abandon trying to kill Arctik for some reason, possibly because they thought he may be shielded the next night as well, or because they found his investigative abilities more useful to their own side than dangerous.

Wait what? Investigative abilities? Where did that come from?

I think that their was a thought going around about how they sacraffised a night-kill in order to gather information.

Orkeo did you mean that the scum have an investigative power and that A_F is not scum or that the A_F, who is not scum, has an investigative power?

Oh, sorry, when I said "investigative abilities" I didn't mean actual role abilities that provided for investigation. Just his ability to find things out through discussion, and such. If Arctik's accusations always ended up being levied against wolves he may be considered less of a threat to the scum.

Also, Paul only said that it was most likely that Arctik was targeted on the first night, not that he knew it for certain.

I believe that there are night communication channels available to certain town players. I am not sure of this but Thor seems to have inferred it - scum always have the advantage of safe communication between themselves, and he mentioned 'night chat channels' at the end of Day One.

If I was identified, this may be how Fifty knew to shield me, but I was also 'the most likely target' in pretty much everyone's opinion. It could potentially lead to an unbalanced game situation if the shield role had access to exclusive town information. This may, however, have been intended.

I also still believe that Orkeo was the second most likely target for the reasons I expressed on Day Two. If he is scum, then this obviously cannot be the case.

I think it's very likely that the scum have an investigator, and I don't think it's Orkeo - but I cannot be sure. Part of my town power is role-blocking - useful but potentially dangerous late-game if I poorly choose my targets - and therefore I know he did not perform a night action on Night One because I targeted him. He could not have identified Fifty on Night One - this I absolutely know for certain, and there is only a remote possibility that such a power could also be used pre-game (it doesn't seem normal for regular night abilities to work this way).

I was unable to use my night ability on Night Two due to my absence and illness - I simply missed the deadline - and have been absolutely kicking myself for it because I have a good idea of where to apply it.

I have suspected thus far the following:
Day One: No solid 'bad feelings'
Day Two: Dave and Manchu
- Dave seemed too confident, and has simply given me a bad feeling from the start.
- Manchu seemed far too willing to take a safe vote along with another player - a townie would find such an invitation suspicious - and Manchu is usually pretty quick on these things. Today he seems determined not to upset anyone and continues to take safe votes to ensure a lynch.
- I will note that there was very reasonable doubt that TherVadam was scum, but it was late-day and that vote was hurried along. He was not particularly suspicious in my opinion - I was far more suspicious of Manchu by that point.

Day Three:
- Orkeosaurus completely changed his behaviour and I wanted to know why. Since then he has - in my opinion - been frenziedly 'advising' town on obvious tactics and challenging me for pointing out the obvious flaws in his claims. He responded far too agressively to a simple accusation in my opinion.

I believe that Orkeo is the most likely to be scum - Manchu and Dave both give me equally bad feelings but I've found Manchu's reaction today too bizarre to ignore.
I don't feel a need to sort out Orkeo immediately because I am reasonably sure that he is not a scum investigator - as I've said, Fifty's death seemed a little too accurate, and I know who didn't identify him.
At the same time, my straight-up threatening of Orkeo on Day One seems to be a good enough reason for the scum to want to be rid of me - if he's guilty. Yesterday I had no reason to believe as much but today he has been acting very strangely. I have no strong case against him but we have nothing to go on but behaviour - can anyone provide us with anything better?

I've pointed out my fears before - Manchu is far too good at making people feel comfortable to be lynched without damning evidence, and he's the most dangerous scum player I can imagine out of the players here. Therefore, for the time being:

Unvote: Manchu
Vote: Orkeosaurus

Arctik_Firangi wrote:I believe that there are night communication channels available to certain town players. I am not sure of this but Thor seems to have inferred it - scum always have the advantage of safe communication between themselves, and he mentioned 'night chat channels' at the end of Day One.

I think the 13th company had the ability to talk during the night.

Day Three:
- Orkeosaurus completely changed his behaviour and I wanted to know why.

I already told you this once. I've become more aggressive because there's more to work with now, and we're really losing an ability we might have had to make mistakes, so there needs to be more discussion.

Since then he has - in my opinion - been frenziedly 'advising' town on obvious tactics and challenging me for pointing out the obvious flaws in his claims. He responded far too agressively to a simple accusation in my opinion.

I responded aggressively to you trying to end the day phase quickly and opposing discussion. And I stand by it. If your "advice" had been listened to we would probably be down another townie by now.

At the same time, my straight-up threatening of Orkeo on Day One seems to be a good enough reason for the scum to want to be rid of me - if he's guilty. Yesterday I had no reason to believe as much but today he has been acting very strangely. I have no strong case against him but we have nothing to go on but behaviour - can anyone provide us with anything better?

Why would I put my neck out to further discussion amongst the town if I was scum? It's a hell of a lot easier to sit back and bandwagon on some quiet guy for a bunch of spurious nonsense. Which is what scum does, when they can get away with it, and they've been getting away with it so far.

This is the truth of the matter, really. There isn't any "random" voting. Voting without evidence is directed by the only people who actually know what they're doing: the scum. (Or possibly, some investigative role.)

I've pointed out my fears before - Manchu is far too good at making people feel comfortable to be lynched without damning evidence, and he's the most dangerous scum player I can imagine out of the players here.

Yeah, I've expressed my own concerns on the matter. But if you consider him so dangerous, why are you voting for me?

Orkeosaurus wrote:

I've pointed out my fears before - Manchu is far too good at making people feel comfortable to be lynched without damning evidence, and he's the most dangerous scum player I can imagine out of the players here.

Yeah, I've expressed my own concerns on the matter. But if you consider him so dangerous, why are you voting for me?

This also makes no sense to me.

Also, how am I dangerous? So far, I have defended you both against early-day pile ups. I have participated heavily and I think transparently in the attempt to organize what little information we have into arguments and stratgeies. The only thing that I can think of to justify your suspicions, besides the fact that everyone should be under supicion, is to criticize some of your arguments and defend myself against your accusations. A_F, you especially seem to just vote for whoever opposes you in any way, peppering your accusations over-genrously with unsupportable claims.

It seems to me very probable that oen or both of you is actually town and we've simply set ourselves up as the main attraction to draw votes and attention away from the scum.

Manchu wrote: A_F, you especially seem to just vote for whoever opposes you in any way, peppering your accusations over-genrously with unsupportable claims.

You have permission to lie, just don't expect people to believe it.

My vote for you wasn't based on your opposition of me. I've explained that.

My vote for Orkeo wasn't based on his opposition of me - although you earlier tried to claim that it was. It's another outright lie.

Your claims of transparency are akin to painting a picture and tacking it on the other side of a window frame. Yes, my claims are unsupportable. This is not a revalation - it is the nature of the game.

Arctik_Firangi wrote:My vote for Orkeo wasn't based on his opposition of me - although you earlier tried to claim that it was. It's another outright lie.

So explain why you're voting for Orkeo rather than me, THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN MWAHAHAHA!. You say that contradiction is not an argument. I say your overblown insults don't amount to one, either. It's like you keep expecting me to put up a vote for myself but I can assure you that's not happening. Or you just want to keep this the Orkeo-Manchu-A_F show, which would be great for the silent scum.

Alright captive audience, I'm going to get OOC for a minute and advertise John's latest game, Team Survivor. It's fun and fast paced and set to start next week. I hope you guys will take a minute to look over the rules and post if you have any questions. More importantly, please join if you can. This time, we have a Necromunda theme!

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/309712.page

I like Necromunda.
I asked for sign-up Manchu. Be happy, your shameless advertising worked and now I have less free time.

At this time I have no real comments to add after my last.

Gathering_storm, yes you are right, how stupid of me.

Manchu, we have been over first night's lack of nightkill way too much already and I feel ashamed to keep getting back to it, but I think you misunderstood me. This is my fault, because I left to much unsaid.

It was Arctic who said it earlier in this very thread, 'Everything is possible. Less is likely.' I have not assumed, and I certainly do not know, if Arctic is innocent, if fifty knew what he was doing with any reasonable certainty, or if the scum really targeted A_F. But that doesn't change the fact that it Is one of the most plausible scenarios.

I see people saying that A_F was the most likely target for the missing night one kill.

I see no argument in support of this statement that also explains why he was not killed last night.

So let me propose one, at least regarding why he was not killed last night (assuming he is town): As I have said since the beginning of today, it is very likely that the scum have an investigative ability. To me, it is more likely than not that they knew that Fifty was the Wolf Guard before they killed him because, as Orkeo has noted, he was a fairly neutral player through days one and two and there would be no other reason to kill him. This means that the scum were more afraid of Fifty than A_F. To me, this suggests that if A_F does indeed have a special ability that scum know about it must be less threatening to scum than shielding. Or it could suggest that scum do not know whether or not A_F has a special power. It may also suggest that A_F has no night power at all and is just playing a very loud bluff.

Of course, this doesn't prove that A_F isn't scum. That's also a plausible explanation for why he hasn't been killed. He says that me still being alive is evidence that I'm scum and there is no reason why that argument shouldn't apply equally to him.

It also doesn't prove or tend to prove that A_F was the most likely target for night one. The fact that he's been "loud" basically reveals nothing. Well, A_F thinks it reveals something but it's the opposite conclusion. According to his own arguments, his loudness is one of the things that is keeping him alive because the scum are using him as a distraction and playing up suspicion of him.

I have suggested the same thing regarding not only him but also Orkeo and myself. (Let me also note that while he says that his being loud is proof that he's town, Orkeo and I being loud are proof that we're scum. OK . . . ?) I am beginning to think that it is pretty suspicious, however, of A_F to complain about how his loudness is being used as a distraction only to see him dance back and forth between voting for the other two loudest players while basically ignoring the quieter ones.

Meanhwile, because I_S has basically assured us that he will not be threatened into talking, my vote serves no current purpose. Therefore:

unvote: Inquisitor_Symphnious
vote: Dastardly Dave

I would really like to see some more analysis from you, especially after you were saying so much before.

You raise a lot of valid points, Manchu, and as always, it is hard not to agree at least to some extent.

To bad we couldn't get a lynch off today though.

Regarding getting a lynch today, here's my analysis (but I welcome others to check my work):

Assuming the scum always get a night kill, lynching a townie today brings the scum one day closer to winning. (And conversely, lynching scum pushes them back by one day.) So in the unlikely event that there are four scum, lynching an innocent today means that they win tomorrow and lynching no one today means that we'd have one more day before they win. That seems extremely improbable to me, almost as improbable as there being only one scum. If there are four scum, however, failing to lynch today gives us one more day (although it will be little use against four) as opposed to lynching an innocent and auto-loosing. So not lynching today would be preferable in that case.

Let's proceed to the more likely scenarios of there benig only two or three scum. If there are three scum and we lynch an innocent today, the scum then have either one day left if they succeed in lynching an innocent tomorrow or two if they don't succeed. If there are only two scum, push these scenarios further by one day. The three scum scenario is the more dangerous of the more probable possibilities, so I suggest that we assume there are three scum. In that case, lynching an innocent today rather than tomorrow and lynching an innocent tomorrow rather than today are equivalent: in both scenarioes, we have at least three days until the scum auto-win.

But keep in mind that lynching, albeit risky, is our ONLY means of winning. If we do not lynch today then we must lynch tomorrow. Barring some major development, our inactivity today severely curtails our flexibility tomorrow. (This is why it is always advantageous to scum that town skip a lynch, even if it's not hugely advantageous.) Looking at the present situation (just under four and a half hours left), the only currently possible lynch is of A_F. So I'll narrow my analysis to his potential lynch.

What complicates the issue is that A_F claims to be a town special character. If he is scum, this has been (at least regarding staying my hand) a tremendously successful cover. On the one hand, if he is telling the truth and we lynch him then we obviously forfeit more than being one day closer to loosing. On the other hand, if he's telling the truth (even if just about being town) then he will almost certainly be killed tonight. So if he survives until tomorrow then, as he has argued himself, it will be far harder to trust him.

There are two reasons not to lynch A_F today if we assume he is town: (1) to avoid being one day closer to scum victory -AND- (2) to avoid loosing pro-town special powers. The second reason, however, is not very good. It assumes that A_F will survive the night, which outcome renders any special powers he might have far too suspect to trust. Ironically, if he does not survive the night then his powers, if any are revealed, will prove trustworthy but we will have no access to them.

That leaves the first reason: if we lynch A_F and he proves to be town then we will have moved one day closer than otherwise to scum victory. But that's the risk that we take every day with every player. The only difference regarding A_F is that he claims to have special powers (indeed, more than one: he said role-blocking was only part of his powers). The question that I've been racking my brains over is whether this claim makes it more or less likely that A_F is scum. I don't believe that the claim by itself can make it less likely that he's scum. Otherwise, all scum would simply claim to have special powers. Similarly, I can't find a clear way that it makes him being scum more likely.

But there are many reasons that it might not be true:

(1) it could serve as cover if he was scum, as it indeed has regarding my vote (despite his baiting) as well as for Paul and GS

(2) it's the only way he can explain away his bizarre accusations against Orkeo on day one, although it's a poor explanation

(3) there was no pressing pro-town reason to reveal that he had special powers on Day 3, especially without better evidence that the claim is true

(4) it could bolsters the authority of his posts, even if they contain little to no reasoned argument (I think this has definitely happened)

While I cannot say that it is more or less likely that A_F is scum I can say that it is more likely than not that his claim to have special powers is a bluff. Therefore, even if I assume that he is town, the risk regarding his lynch is the exact same as the risk involved with lynching any other player. By default, that is an acceptable risk because it is the only way that we have to win. So I will vote: Arctik_Firangi. Even if we don't get a lynch, I am loathe to sit idle and abandon the only power I have in trying to win.

I highly recommend that he detail his special power, including the specific name he said he was assigned, and tell us more details about how he has used that power. If he is not lynched today and survives until tomorrow, this may at least give us the opportunity to check his claim against new information--either someone else claiming that they have the same power or other special powers coming into play during the night. If he is lynched or killed and proves to have had special powers, then we will at least know that any information he gives today is probably reliable. If he turns out to be scum, then whatever he offers could be used to form new leads against other scum.

I would also like an explanation of why, if he is so sure he will be killed tonight if he is not lynched, he hasn't already given such an account considering the many ways it would be helpful.

Vote Count 3.3 - "This is my fault, because I left to much unsaid. "

0 - Manchu
0 - Lord of battles
3 - Arctik_Firangi ( VikingScott Lord of battles Inquisitor_Syphonious)
2 - Dastardly Dave (Orkeosaurus Manchu)
0 - Paul Atreides
0 - VikingScott
0 - Inquisitor_Syphonious
0 - Gathering Storm
2 - Orkeosaurus ( Gathering Storm Arctik_Firangi )



Not Voting

Dastardly Dave
Paul Atreides



With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.

Deadline Countdown

It is a bit less then 4 hours till deadline.

If you want a lynch there needs to be some focused activity.

(Pssst Thor! Manchu is voting for Artik.)

Thor665 wrote:If you want a lynch there needs to be some focused activity.

I'm trying my damned hardest! If the scum win, it won't have been my fault.

EDIT: Sorry, I guess I have to also Unvote: Dastardly Dave.

I would like to see a scum lynch today so I am set on Arctik_Firangi.

I am here posting. I am still voting for A_F. All I have to say.

I'm going to continue my vote against Dastardly Dave, even knowing that it will only end up contributing to a no-lynch.

Simply put, I don't think Arctik is scum, and I think we hurt our chances by losing another townie. I don't give much consideration to the value of his supposed power, since he's said himself that it isn't very good late game, and a random lynch could actually lose us a better power role. Plus it could be made up.

I actually do find the claim that he was given a proper name to be likely. It explains the posts he made at the time, and this is a significant point in his favor. He also risked a pretty quick death when he told me that he used a role suppression power on me (if I had used successfully used a role power on the first night I would have gone all over him), and him having been targeted on the first turn and blacked by Fifty still seems like the most plausible explanation for the lack of a lynch.

While I can't be sure that Arctik isn't scum, the overall conclusion I have come to is that it's better to risk him being scum and not getting a lynch off this turn than it is to risk him being a townie and putting us a day closer to our deaths; the second case seems far more likely to occur.

And I must say Manchu, I'm a little surprised at how casually you seem to dismiss the evidence working in Arctik's favor.

Orkeosaurus wrote:(if I had used successfully used a role power on the first night I would have gone all over him)

Could you explain what you mean by this?

And I must say Manchu, I'm a little surprised at how casually you seem to dismiss the evidence working in Arctik's favor.

I think that you made a very good point (all the more striking to me because I had not thought of it) that Fifty shielding A_F would not explain the lack of a kill on night one if A_F were scum. But that's only a point in A_F's favor if Fifty did indeed shield A_F and, in the alternative, that A_F was indeed targeted. I have nothing to back up those assumption except A_F's claim that he knows for a fact that he was targeted--a "fact" that is unsupported by any other claims or evidence. I'm just supposed to believe it on it's face? And, upon further reflection, it strikes me that the real question is not whether the scum thought that A_F was the most likely target, as A_F has repeatedly claimed and I had blithely accepted, but rather whether Fifty thought that A_F was the most likely target. That's something that we cannot know.

I can understand that you are voting based on your "instinct" but I think that instinct is more speculation than anything else. Although I would like to hear what other points you think are in A_F's favor. I'm voting A_F because he's the only possible lynch at this point and I have no reason to believe that we'll loose more by lynching him than we would by lynching any other townie. At the same time, it's just as likely that he's scum as you or Paul or Dave or any of us (at least from the perspectives of other townies). Whatever comes of it, we will certainly know more soon enough.

Manchu wrote:

Thor665 wrote:If you want a lynch there needs to be some focused activity.

I'm trying my damned hardest! If the scum win, it won't have been my fault.

EDIT: Sorry, I guess I have to also Unvote: Dastardly Dave.

Just to clarify - I did miss your vote for AF (let's try to leave votes left justified, makes it easier to spot them). So is the DD unvote a joke, or is it a desire to be currently not voting.

No I have to unvote to vote, right? I thought that might be why you didn't count the vote.

Manchu wrote:Could you explain what you mean by this?

Sure. Say I had a role power, such as investigation, and if used this power I would get the result back, and it would be clear that t worked. Also, I used this power on the first night. Now say that Arctik, lying, told me that he had used a role power nullifying ability on me the first night. He would be in deep gak, as I could publicly reveal my power, and call him out on his lies. Or at least try to steer the town against him. It was a risk that I don't think scum would have taken.

I think that you made a very good point (all the more striking to me because I had not thought of it) that Fifty shielding A_F would not explain the lack of a kill on night one if A_F were scum. But that's only a point in A_F's favor if Fifty did indeed shield A_F and, in the alternative, that A_F was indeed targeted. I have nothing to back up those assumption except A_F's claim that he knows for a fact that he was targeted--a "fact" that is unsupported by any other claims or evidence. I'm just supposed to believe it on it's face? And, upon further reflection, it strikes me that the real question is not whether the scum thought that A_F was the most likely target, as A_F has repeatedly claimed and I had blithely accepted, but rather whether Fifty thought that A_F was the most likely target. That's something that we cannot know.

Well, Fifty would shield based on who he would guess the scum would go after, so there's definitely a relation between the scum and Fifty, in terms of decision making.

The main issue seems to be that there needs to be some explanation for the lack of a night kill, and it seems like the person shielded must have been me, you, or Arctik. Arctik because he was the loudest on Day 1, had fallen into a sort of leadership role, and may have made me a good target for Day 2's lynch. Me because I would have made Arctik a good target for Day 2's lynch, and you because you're hard to lynch and you were putting forth a good deal of logic yourself. Now, the scum may decide to avoid rocking the boat by picking off a straggler. However, it seems unlikely that in this instance Fifty would have been able to protect this straggler (unless, perhaps the straggler was Fifty himself). Of the three mentioned above, however, it seems like Arctik would be the one most likely to be protected, and probably the one most likely to be lynched. His "provocation" may have started to intimidate the scum, or maybe they just wanted to make an example of anyone who tried to take up a leadership role. The big one, though, is that Arctik specifically requested protection for a short period of time.

I can understand that you are voting based on your "instinct" but I think that instinct is more speculation than anything else. Although I would like to hear what other points you think are in A_F's favor. I'm voting A_F because he's the only possible lynch at this point and I have no reason to believe that we'll loose more by lynching him than we would by lynching any other townie. At the same time, it's just as likely that he's scum as you or Paul or Dave or any of us (at least from the perspectives of other townies).

Aside from his general attitude (that "instinct" part, I suppose), the three points I previously mentioned are all I have for him. However, they seem enough to tip the scales towards not voting today, to me. The real problem is that while I do think Actik can be established as innocent with a fair degree of likelihood, we're really no closer to finding the killers than we were when the game began (besides process of elimination). This is bad news. I would speculate that the scum some how got us distracted, but honestly, I'm largely to blame for it myself. The problem is there's just so little actual evidence to go on. I literally lack even the slightest idea of who is scum and who is town, with the exception of myself (obviously) and Arctik (for previously mentioned reasons). I would add you to the list due to your contributions, but my guess is you would play the same way as scum. You're tricky like that.

Whatever comes of it, we will certainly know more soon enough.

Unfortunately I have bad portents about this one. All well.


To give it one last shot: if anyone feels the way I do about Arctik, I would ask that you help me gang up on Dastardly Dave. I won't lie, I have no reason to suspect him of anything, but we're better off taking out someone (truly) randomly than getting a no-lynch.

So why Dastedley Dave and not say Gathering Storm or Paul?

@Orkeo: You're absolutely right about one thing: if I was scum, I'd be doing my best to play just like I was town. On the other hand, when I'm town I have to play town as hard as I can. The only way to tell the difference is whether my logic seems to obscure more than it reveals. This, by the way, is the only good reason I can come up with why A_F is hounding me--but I don't think my arguments have obscured anything so I don't agree with A_F's appraisal of me (which I know to factually false in any case).

I know that others will do the same thing. The problem is that others don't seem to do much investigating out loud whether they're scum or town so it's impossible to tell. I was resolved to try and play this way earlier in the game but the only result was that we lost only townies. So I resolved to take the chance of getting louder only to find myself caught up in the very same dance with A_F that I wanted to avoid. And I suppose that was what the scum counted on all along: namely that the talkers would talk themselves into attracting all the scrutiny.

FWIW, I will jump ship from A_F to DD as long as two other players do the same so that the chances of getting a lynch today are equal to what they currently are.