Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
We have the biggest drive thru KFC in Ireland. When it reopened last week the queue stretched for over a mile.
That is some dedication for a piece of fried chicken
The big US fast food chains are not ubiquitous in the UK by any means in the more provincial parts.
Here in rural Devon we only got a McDonalds around 20 years ago, then we had a long wait for KFC, and we had similar scenes the weekend that opened, with traffic queuing for miles, choking one of the areas most vital trunk roads, and only got a Burger King mabe 8 or 10 years ago.
I believe some counties in the UK still don't have a McDonalds. I expect parts of Ireland are similar.
Consequently there's a mystique (for want of a better word) that the chains just don't have in other countries.
I'm a fan of KFC, but funnily enough Burger King gives me a similar sensation to Vakathi has with KFC, and I'd attributed that to the grease also.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/20 16:02:17
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
I suspect if the push to reopen schools in the UK works
(and at the moment I don't thing it will since we've not got track & trace working yet and enough councils realise we need it first)
I think we'll see schools told they're not having a summer break this year to replace the 'lost' teaching time, plus it will mean more parents can get back to work when a lot of small child minding businesses/charities who would normally pick up the slack during the holidays have gone out of business or won't be able to run economically with social distancing in place
so there's going to be a lot of pressure to keep the kids in school (as they've already been doing at weekends for key workers children)
If schools officially break, kids end their years etc it makes it a lot more complicated to do this
Relevant excerpts from the article spoilered below. Follow the link to the article to see the supporting data and charts.
Spoiler:
On Sunday CNN ran a segment on the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. The news channel promoted it with the jarring tweet “Texas is seeing the highest number of new coronavirus cases and deaths just two weeks after it officially reopened.” The segment spotlighted 1,448 new cases and 58 new deaths, and noted the increased movement of people in the state according to cellphone data, illustrating that the public was increasingly out and about.
While technically true, this information is horribly misleading, and to the extent CNN is trying to establish a causal connection between Texas’ reopening and the increase in coronavirus diagnoses and deaths in the Lone Star State, it is simply wrong. It is so wrong that it is difficult to give the benefit of the doubt here. There are three reasons for this.
First, deaths are a trailing indicator. COVID-19 does not kill quickly; the average time to death from infection varies by source, but somewhere between three and four weeks is the average. In other words, the deaths in Texas over the weekend were mostly seeded before the reopening.
Second, consider the following three charts, which use data taken from the indispensable COVID Tracking Project. The first shows the seven-day rolling average of cases in Texas. We use the seven-day average because states are inconsistent in reporting data, so what might appear to be a massive one-day spike could simply reflect cases that weren’t updated fully over the weekend, or other anomalies in the data reporting process.
...
Third, and finally, CNN fails to examine important granularity in the Texas data, which makes it very unlikely that the surge in cases is being driven by increased spread.
...
What CNN has probably discovered is not that Texas’ reopening is driving an increase in cases. Instead, it seems to have discovered yet another outbreak in meatpacking plants, a story on which CNN has reported elsewhere and which has been covered in the Lone Star State for going on a month now. These outbreaks should not be waved away; they represent a genuine problem, though this problem is mitigated by the fact that there are relatively few sick and/or elderly workers on meatpacking floors. At the same time, it has very little to do with the merits of re-opening the economy at this point.
Getting this right is important because the stakes are incredibly high here. The only way we get this right, however, is if we’re supplied with a proper balance of good news and bad news. Right now, much of the media is in full bore “bad news” mode.
This skewed information diet makes it difficult to sort things out correctly, but it has an additional negative consequence. The viewer/reader will decide for him- or herself whether this is misfeasance or malfeasance on CNN’s part, but regardless, at this point in the pandemic it ought to know to check things like the testing rate and whether there are idiosyncratic outbreaks in prisons or meatpacking plants. If you are someone who believes that the media has an important gatekeeping function in slowing the spread of misinformation and disinformation, then having a major media company spreading what is dangerously close to disinformation impairs that function and erodes overall public confidence in an important institution for democracy.
Small note to make on this, because I see a lot of hammering on this 3-4 week average. The studies I have seen that have the average time to death of three to four weeks have had a lower median age than most Covid-19 victims as the pandemic spread. Those over 70 can take on average as little as two weeks to die from the start of infection. Unfortunately I see no age related statistics amongst the deaths.
Regardless, without more statistics and some extra time, its going to be really hard to judge if it was ok or not to lift at this stage. Eventually it will become much more clear what is happening now.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/20 16:06:35
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Hiv vaccine is technical problem to be solved as well. Or previous corona viruses. We are still waiting those.
Now there are promising results so far but even then it's not quarantee. Vaccine might never show up(or be like 20 year+ later...) at which point time for head scratching on how to avoid worst. Maybe at least some sort of medicine to help recovery can be found. But no quarantees there either. Several failures already(including one trump is already consuming just for fun of it...)
There is too much money on the table for a vaccine to not be found. The issue with other coronavirus is that they were never such a big thing so the economic incentive was low and sadly vaccine development is expensive and it will not be done without the promise of money.
But with this virus threatening basically the entire planet, whoever comes up with a vaccine will basically drown in money. So for once hurrah for capitalism.
Eh just because you can pour and make money if you succeed does not mean you can succeed. Anybody who comes up with hiv vaccine would become rich. Money has been poured to it. Where's the rich guy?
Hell anybody coming up faster than light travel would become insanely rich. Going to be found?
Immortality? Can't claim no money to be found on that...
We have the biggest drive thru KFC in Ireland. When it reopened last week the queue stretched for over a mile.
That is some dedication for a piece of fried chicken
The big US fast food chains are not ubiquitous in the UK by any means in the more provincial parts.
Here in rural Devon we only got a McDonalds around 20 years ago, then we had a long wait for KFC, and we had similar scenes the weekend that opened, with traffic queuing for miles, choking one of the areas most vital trunk roads, and only got a Burger King mabe 8 or 10 years ago.
I believe some counties in the UK still don't have a McDonalds. I expect parts of Ireland are similar.
Consequently there's a mystique (for want of a better word) that the chains just don't have in other countries.
I'm a fan of KFC, but funnily enough Burger King gives me a similar sensation to Vakathi has with KFC, and I'd attributed that to the grease also.
Same in the Netherlands, in rural parts you would have to drive 20 minutes on the highway to get to a McDonalds (in recent years they are seriously expanding). The KFC and Burger King are mostly limited to cities, you would have to drive quite far in rural areas to get to one (far in the NL being like 30 min). Although they never closed down here, just for what can only be generously described as 'dining' there. Take out and delivery was still available.
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Hiv vaccine is technical problem to be solved as well. Or previous corona viruses. We are still waiting those.
Now there are promising results so far but even then it's not quarantee. Vaccine might never show up(or be like 20 year+ later...) at which point time for head scratching on how to avoid worst. Maybe at least some sort of medicine to help recovery can be found. But no quarantees there either. Several failures already(including one trump is already consuming just for fun of it...)
There is too much money on the table for a vaccine to not be found. The issue with other coronavirus is that they were never such a big thing so the economic incentive was low and sadly vaccine development is expensive and it will not be done without the promise of money.
But with this virus threatening basically the entire planet, whoever comes up with a vaccine will basically drown in money. So for once hurrah for capitalism.
The virus doesn't care how much money you have. Neither does the human body.
Money means we're going to give it the best possible attempt. And there are reasons to be optimistic. But this straight-line path to success people have in their heads may not come to pass. Vax development tends to have twist and turns and steps forward and setbacks.
Relevant excerpts from the article spoilered below. Follow the link to the article to see the supporting data and charts.
Spoiler:
On Sunday CNN ran a segment on the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. The news channel promoted it with the jarring tweet “Texas is seeing the highest number of new coronavirus cases and deaths just two weeks after it officially reopened.” The segment spotlighted 1,448 new cases and 58 new deaths, and noted the increased movement of people in the state according to cellphone data, illustrating that the public was increasingly out and about.
While technically true, this information is horribly misleading, and to the extent CNN is trying to establish a causal connection between Texas’ reopening and the increase in coronavirus diagnoses and deaths in the Lone Star State, it is simply wrong. It is so wrong that it is difficult to give the benefit of the doubt here. There are three reasons for this.
First, deaths are a trailing indicator. COVID-19 does not kill quickly; the average time to death from infection varies by source, but somewhere between three and four weeks is the average. In other words, the deaths in Texas over the weekend were mostly seeded before the reopening.
Second, consider the following three charts, which use data taken from the indispensable COVID Tracking Project. The first shows the seven-day rolling average of cases in Texas. We use the seven-day average because states are inconsistent in reporting data, so what might appear to be a massive one-day spike could simply reflect cases that weren’t updated fully over the weekend, or other anomalies in the data reporting process.
...
Third, and finally, CNN fails to examine important granularity in the Texas data, which makes it very unlikely that the surge in cases is being driven by increased spread.
...
What CNN has probably discovered is not that Texas’ reopening is driving an increase in cases. Instead, it seems to have discovered yet another outbreak in meatpacking plants, a story on which CNN has reported elsewhere and which has been covered in the Lone Star State for going on a month now. These outbreaks should not be waved away; they represent a genuine problem, though this problem is mitigated by the fact that there are relatively few sick and/or elderly workers on meatpacking floors. At the same time, it has very little to do with the merits of re-opening the economy at this point.
Getting this right is important because the stakes are incredibly high here. The only way we get this right, however, is if we’re supplied with a proper balance of good news and bad news. Right now, much of the media is in full bore “bad news” mode.
This skewed information diet makes it difficult to sort things out correctly, but it has an additional negative consequence. The viewer/reader will decide for him- or herself whether this is misfeasance or malfeasance on CNN’s part, but regardless, at this point in the pandemic it ought to know to check things like the testing rate and whether there are idiosyncratic outbreaks in prisons or meatpacking plants. If you are someone who believes that the media has an important gatekeeping function in slowing the spread of misinformation and disinformation, then having a major media company spreading what is dangerously close to disinformation impairs that function and erodes overall public confidence in an important institution for democracy.
Small note to make on this, because I see a lot of hammering on this 3-4 week average. The studies I have seen that have the average time to death of three to four weeks have had a lower median age than most Covid-19 victims as the pandemic spread. Those over 70 can take on average as little as two weeks to die from the start of infection. Unfortunately I see no age related statistics amongst the deaths.
Regardless, without more statistics and some extra time, its going to be really hard to judge if it was ok or not to lift at this stage. Eventually it will become much more clear what is happening now.
You're right. After a few more weeks pass we'll have better data by which to judge the impact and merits of the re-opening in Texas. That's also why it is extremely disengenuous to use current data mere days from re-opening as proof that re-opening has had a negative impact.
Hiv vaccine is technical problem to be solved as well. Or previous corona viruses. We are still waiting those.
Now there are promising results so far but even then it's not quarantee. Vaccine might never show up(or be like 20 year+ later...) at which point time for head scratching on how to avoid worst. Maybe at least some sort of medicine to help recovery can be found. But no quarantees there either. Several failures already(including one trump is already consuming just for fun of it...)
There is too much money on the table for a vaccine to not be found. The issue with other coronavirus is that they were never such a big thing so the economic incentive was low and sadly vaccine development is expensive and it will not be done without the promise of money.
But with this virus threatening basically the entire planet, whoever comes up with a vaccine will basically drown in money. So for once hurrah for capitalism.
The virus doesn't care how much money you have. Neither does the human body.
Money means we're going to give it the best possible attempt. And there are reasons to be optimistic. But this straight-line path to success people have in their heads may not come to pass. Vax development tends to have twist and turns and steps forward and setbacks.
True. We may never create a vaccine. Some labs have reported progress and might achieve success. Even if they do any vaccine would have to go through a lengthy detailed trial evaluation process to make sure it is safe and effective for hundreds of millions, billions?, of people. Then production would need to create enough doses of the vaccine for all those people. We might end up with a vaccine but it's not going to be ready to use this year.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/20 16:37:45
Eh just because you can pour and make money if you succeed does not mean you can succeed. Anybody who comes up with hiv vaccine would become rich. Money has been poured to it. Where's the rich guy?
Hell anybody coming up faster than light travel would become insanely rich. Going to be found?
Immortality? Can't claim no money to be found on that...
Vaccines are never quarantee.
The fact that you are comparing it to Faster Than Light travel, something that we are not even sure is possible and even if it would require technology centuries if not millennia beyond us is disingenuous.
But the fact that people do recover from COVID infection suggest a vaccine is possible, that our immune systems can overcome it and thus can be trained to do that.
The problem with HIV is that our immune system is hopeless against it, you don't recover from it. At most, with treatment, you learn to live with it.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/20 16:40:48
We didn’t get our first McDonalds until ‘93 for...reasons, probably.
I mention things like this because I find that talking about these things boosts morale; remember the stuff you enjoyed that you took for granted that will hopefully be back one day soon.
Money means we're going to give it the best possible attempt. And there are reasons to be optimistic. But this straight-line path to success people have in their heads may not come to pass. Vax development tends to have twist and turns and steps forward and setbacks.
True. We may never create a vaccine. Some labs have reported progress and might achieve success. Even if they do any vaccine would have to go through a lengthy detailed trial evaluation process to make sure it is safe and effective for hundreds of millions, billions?, of people. Then production would need to create enough doses of the vaccine for all those people. We might end up with a vaccine but it's not going to be ready to use this year.
They don't screw around with vaccine trials. Trials aren't a perfect process and there are things that you only learn after it's approved and widely used. But they try hard to get those right because the stakes are high. And yeah, manufacturing will take time and potentially more time depending on what type(s) of vaccine wins. It's not like making shower current rings. Then there's distribution, which isn't as easy as people think. That's not like shipping shower curtain rings to Walmart. IIRC, the 2009 swine flu vax had various distribution issues. And then of course there's the issue of who gets it first. Even after it's 'available', most people will be waiting a while.
I'm not sure what the plans are for pediatric trials (it would make sense if are some being done more-or-less concurrently...I can look that up), but note that any vax approved for adults will need to go through the process to be approved for use in kids. It's a separate approval. Children aren't simply little adults...their bodies behave differently to drugs, vaccines, etc.
(and at the moment I don't thing it will since we've not got track & trace working yet and enough councils realise we need it first)
I think we'll see schools told they're not having a summer break this year to replace the 'lost' teaching time, plus it will mean more parents can get back to work when a lot of small child minding businesses/charities who would normally pick up the slack during the holidays have gone out of business or won't be able to run economically with social distancing in place
so there's going to be a lot of pressure to keep the kids in school (as they've already been doing at weekends for key workers children)
If schools officially break, kids end their years etc it makes it a lot more complicated to do this
Change the contracts of every state teacher in England retrospectively? All the best defeating that strike.
The gov have already said that they won't extend the school term into the summer (as much as any assurances that come out of their mouths mean anything).
So no, there isn't any logic for re-opening for that short period of time, if you are to compare the small benefit to the children and parents to the risk of further spread of the virus.
The fact that you are comparing it to Faster Than Light travel, something that we are not even sure is possible and even if it would require technology centuries if not millennia beyond us is disingenuous.
But the fact that people do recover from COVID infection suggest a vaccine is possible, that our immune systems can overcome it and thus can be trained to do that.
The problem with HIV is that our immune system is hopeless against it, you don't recover from it. At most, with treatment, you learn to live with it.
We are not sure can vaccine to this be made. Humans haven\t made one for PREVIOUS corona viruses despite attempts. It's not just "pour money, vaccine will come".
There's zero quarantee there is vaccine to be made or at least without millenias advance in technology.
Just because there's virus doesn't mean there's vaccine to be found or that it's at least in feasible timeframe. Vaccine that can be found after 1000 years isn't much of use for us now. If every virus had vaccine to be found just with money we would have vaccine for HIV and for previous corona variants. This isn't first time ever corona has appeared. You DO know that don't you?
But go ahead. Put your head under sand and pretend something that isn't quaranteed is quaranteed. It's your loss if you want to showcase your ignorance on the subject.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/20 18:27:35
The reason they haven't made vaccines for the likes of SARS and MERS isn't a technical issue, it's the fact that these viruses self limited before a vaccine was complete and therefore continuing research was redundant.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
We are not sure can vaccine to this be made. Humans haven\t made one for PREVIOUS corona viruses despite attempts. It's not just "pour money, vaccine will come".
There's zero quarantee there is vaccine to be made or at least without millenias advance in technology.
Just because there's virus doesn't mean there's vaccine to be found or that it's at least in feasible timeframe. Vaccine that can be found after 1000 years isn't much of use for us now. If every virus had vaccine to be found just with money we would have vaccine for HIV and for previous corona variants. This isn't first time ever corona has appeared. You DO know that don't you?
But go ahead. Put your head under sand and pretend something that isn't quaranteed is quaranteed. It's your loss if you want to showcase your ignorance on the subject.
The previous coronavirues did not have anything close to the interest COVID-19 has. The worst of them (previous to COVID-19) was SARS and it only infected over 8000 people and ceased to exist after 2004. Until recently there was no interest in vaccines for coronaviruses, at least nothing comparable to what is being done to develop a vaccine for COVID-19.
Aye but there's a vast difference not just in funding but in the staff willing and able to research. When its not a critical thing and isn't getting vast amounts of attention and funding, things will move into the background. That doesn't mean skilled people aren't working on it, just that perhaps they only work on it less than on other, more major subjects of research.
So yes the attention and money will make some big changes to the research. You'll have more teams, potentially higher skilled and better equipped teams all working toward a similar goal. If there's any international link-ups going on this also means a chance to increase research options; having different teams work on different approaches; uniting teams to focus on more likely pathways or pathways further along that show potential etc...
This, of course, does not in any way guarantee success; nor success within any given time frame. That said it does mean that humanity is making an effort to increase (in a significant way) the resources its dedicating to this endeavour. There is practical hope of a vaccine development.
Pacific wrote: The gov have already said that they won't extend the school term into the summer (as much as any assurances that come out of their mouths mean anything).
So no, there isn't any logic for re-opening for that short period of time, if you are to compare the small benefit to the children and parents to the risk of further spread of the virus.
I hadn't seen that, is it recent or was this near the start of the outbreak?
1) timetables for the autumn term are already being worked on. They won't be able to just pull a 6 week timetable out of nowhere for the summer.
2) teachers have contracts of employment that can't just be overridden
3) honestly the autumn term is long enough as it is. My kids are completely broken by the time Christmas arrives. There's no way they can just go straight through from June to Christmas.
I believe that's further confirmation of information we've had in the thread before several times - good to have. Interestingly the person doing the read out was estimating that in their opinion, the immunity would only last one or two years. This likely assumes continued mutation of the Corona virus just like we see with flue and other diseases.
well its similar to the immunity gained from other human CVs if I'm correct? or the rhinovirus that cause common colds. but yeah I imagine mutations will happen, just slower than some other virus. something to do with the number of genomes?
No cases reported in London today, 79 in the UK as a whole, and cases in hospital below 10000 for the first time since march.
Matt Swain wrote: One of the big arguments from the people arguing to not develop a vaccine is that we still haven't cured AIDS yet.
.
Is it?
Serious question, this thread moves fast with some informationally dense posts sometimes, but my hot take is that is a hopeless misrepresentation of anything anyone said. I've not seen an argument suggesting we shouldn't try developing a vaccine.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/21 02:56:20
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Matt Swain wrote: One of the big arguments from the people arguing to not develop a vaccine is that we still haven't cured AIDS yet.
Well, while we may not have what people want to call a cure we have treatments that effectively reduce aids to a manageable, non lethal illness.
We have treatments that reduce the viral levels to non detectable levels and make it impossible to transmit the disease.
Quite frankly I think we all ready pour too much money (proportionately) into finding a cure for AIDS. More people die of diabetes than AIDS and Cancer combined, and it's likely a much easier problem to solve, yet doesn't receive the funding.
Alas, resources are finite, and thus competition for funding will always be a thing. That said, going from the info on Cancer.Gov and theAmerican Diabetes Association, Cancer deaths in 2018 in the US were a tad over 600k with Diabetes related/contributory deaths at about 270k in 2017 (not exactly the same years, but as close as I could find on a 2 minute google search), so at least on those counts it would appear Cancer getting increased funding is justified at least on that particular count. That said, I have no idea what the relative funding levels actually are or where they should be and these are vastly different diseases with substantially different required medical responses (and personally, I would have no issues funding additional Diabetes programs myself). With respect to a Covid19 vaccine, it's also a radically different virus from AIDS, so I don't think any comparisons there work terribly well either if people are trying to argue that a lack of an AIDS vaccine is somehow a reason we shouldn't be developing one for Covid19, but I haven't seen that argument put forth anywhere else myself either.
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios
The reason we shouldn't be focusing on a vaccine for COVID-19 is because given what we know about other coronaviruses a vaccine has multiple issues that make it a waste of time.
1) It may not be possible at all. Given the lack of past success in making coronavirus vaccines.
2) If a vaccine does get developed, it will likely be ineffective at protecting people.
3) Finally, even if the vaccine is possible and does eventually get developed, it will be developed long after this crisis has passed. We will have a vaccine for a disease that no longer plagues us.
It's going to be too little, too late, and just waste resources that would be better spent on other stuff.
People aren't trying to make a vaccine for this disease because they actually rationally thought it through and have a reasonable chance of getting it. They're doing it because there is pressure, both political and societal, to make a vaccine for it. Governments want to "do something", and throwing money at a vaccine program fits the bill. And there are plenty of virologists who will take that money even if it has no real hope. Hardly surprising given some of the ridiculous stuff that gets funded with government grants.
Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
1750 pts Blood Specters
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Heresy World Eaters/Emperors Children 
5000pts 
6000pts 
3000pts