Well North Korea, it's been fun knowing you. We've had good times, and bad times. You've given me a lot of fodder for economics presentations, so at least you've done something beneficial.
Here's an interesting scenario. NK launches missile capable of reaching the US. 1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or 2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or. 3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
What do you do Mr. President?
Send Frazzled's weiner dogs on a covert seek-and-devour mission to end the threat and bring about world peace?!
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
What do you do Mr. President?
NK nukes 1 spot the US is related to. US nukes NK away from the planet's surface. The end.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
What do you do Mr. President?
Can't their nukes only barely reach Alaska?
Not quite, but close enough for Sara Palin can see how close to Alaska they can get from her back yard.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
What do you do Mr. President?
Can't their nukes only barely reach Alaska?
Not quite, but close enough for Sara Palin can see how close to Alaska they can get from her back yard.
I've heard NK has the nukes, and that NK has missiles that can reach the lower 48, but the two aren't compatible (something like the nuke is too big for the missile) yet
Frazzled wrote:Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
What do you do Mr. President?
Every option in this choose-your-own-adventure ends with North Korea looking like the Gobi.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
or
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
or.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
What do you do Mr. President?
I would not waste one US life for SK.
NK nukes 1 spot the US is related to. US nukes NK away from the planet's surface. The end.
North Korea's nuclear capacity is barely passed where the U.S. was in 1949. I'm not concerned about their weapons. I am concerned about the consequences for South Koreans and Japan, I have lots of friends in both areas.
I say let em invade, at least my Curio & Relic firearm collection will be boosted significantly (gun owners will get the joke once they see the video)
Skip to 5:50 and see how many museum quality firearms you can spot! I'll give you a few to start with, DP 28's, PPSh 41's, Mosin Nagants, and even RPG 2's!
*This is obviously not what the average North Korean is armed with. If I remember correctly, these guys are the equivalent of our National Guard, aka soldiers who are merely there to hold down the fort while the main army attacks South Korea. Still, if those firearms they're holding are real, some of them could probably be sold off to get them some modern weapons easy
Also, on the "USA is going to get a token city nuked", there's no way they'll pull it off with a balistic missile. Why? We've had systems and protocol in place to shoot down HUNDREDS of ICBM's from back in the cold war days. A handful of missiles from North Korea wouldn't make it over the pacific before they were shot down or disabled by the US government.
However, they could easily nuke Japan or South Korea. If I remember right they hate the Japanese right? I could see them nuking Japan before they nuke South Korea or the US.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
Call Whitman AFB and tell them to get the B-2s ready for action. Then tell NK that if they do we erase their country with our own nuclear arsenal, in standing with our 60-year old policy involving the use of WMD against us.
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
Looks like the cease-fire is off and America's longest continuous war is hot again. Given that we still have troops on the ground on the border, a NK invasion of SK is going to kill Amercian soldiers - so we're already at war so we CAN'T stay out. So we fight the war, and if remind Kim about our existing policy about the use of WMD against us.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Again, given that any significant action by NK against SK will kill America troops, we enforce our existing policy about the use of WMD agaisnt us. NK ceases to exist.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Just a variation on #3. Only this time we lost a LOT more troops in the initial strike.
Frazzled wrote: Here's an interesting scenario.
NK launches missile capable of reaching the US.
1. NK then tells the US it has 90 days to leave SK or it will fire its vast horde of nukes at San Francisco (I'd say hllywood but too many people would volunteer to push the button). What do you do?
Call Whitman AFB and tell them to get the B-2s ready for action. Then tell NK that if they do we erase their country with our own nuclear arsenal, in standing with our 60-year old policy involving the use of WMD against us.
2. NK invades South Korea. NK says stay out or we'll nuke you, or nuke your ships. What do you do?
Looks like the cease-fire is off and America's longest continuous war is hot again. Given that we still have troops on the ground on the border, a NK invasion of SK is going to kill Amercian soldiers - so we're already at war so we CAN'T stay out. So we fight the war, and if remind Kim about our existing policy about the use of WMD against us.
3 NK invades SK. NK nukes a city in SK, and says if the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Again, given that any significant action by NK against SK will kill America troops, we enforce our existing policy about the use of WMD agaisnt us. NK ceases to exist.
4. NK nukes Seoul. NK says it the US retaliates it will nuke the US.
Just a variation on #3. Only this time we lost a LOT more troops in the initial strike.
Are you going to be the President when tens of thousands of American civilians are killed by a nuke?
What nuke frazzled? It takes them up to a month to prepare a detonation of a weapon that still hasn't quite reached Hiroshima sized.
Their missile technology is still hit or miss.
There is no way they have yet figured out how to miniaturize the weapon enough to be placed on an ICBM. That technology is still pretty far out there for them.
And then your just discounting our ICBM defense, which has been in operation for half a decade already, and it just getting more and more beefed up.
Frazzled wrote: Are you going to be the President when tens of thousands of American civilians are killed by a nuke?
Highly unlikely I'll be President of ANYTHING, much less the U.S.A. But it works like this: You can't let a madman hold YOU hostage by threatening innocents. At some point you MUST act to stop him. That's why the police never just give up and let, say, a bank robber go free just because he has a hostage. They stick around and wear him down... and if he doesn't give up, they move in and take him out - all the way out, if necessary.
NK can talk smack all they want. If they act on it, they find out there's a reason the Russians never did.
A full blown nuclear exchange is incredibly unlikely. I don't think that any western power could justify dealing with any human threat by using nuclear weapons. The USA certainly can't face a "threat" to itself like NK by nuking it...
djones520 wrote: What nuke frazzled? It takes them up to a month to prepare a detonation of a weapon that still hasn't quite reached Hiroshima sized.
Their missile technology is still hit or miss.
There is no way they have yet figured out how to miniaturize the weapon enough to be placed on an ICBM. That technology is still pretty far out there for them.
And then your just discounting our ICBM defense, which has been in operation for half a decade already, and it just getting more and more beefed up.
So what you're really telling me is...now is the perfect time to strike.
Those officers sure have great trigger discipline with their pistols.
Also around 10.00 they are apparently using nearly empty ammo belts for shooting which is legit as hell.
Whole thing is probably just another round of saber rattling.
KalashnikovMarine wrote: North Korea's nuclear capacity is barely passed where the U.S. was in 1949. I'm not concerned about their weapons. I am concerned about the consequences for South Koreans and Japan, I have lots of friends in both areas.
This for me, if you add concern for the masses of people in North Korea. It would be some very sad days.
So... I woke up today to hear that NK had cut all contact off with SK.
This is ratcheting up to something that could be a major problem. Up until now, I hadn't really given NK any serious consideration. Now, I'm not so sure.
Hopefully, none of the 2nd ID is deployed in Afghanistan, and they're all available to stand the line. We might end up needing them to slow NK's conventional forces long enough to get reinforcements in place.
Well, right now we have major forces holding combined arms training maneuvers there. If its going to happen now would be the worst time for NK to try anything. Most experts say nothing while this is going on. Might get some shelling / SK ship or such blown up after.
Wouldn't you need to regain control of it to successfully be in orbit? and How long does in orbit constitute?
Wait, regain control? They didn't lose it in the first place. And I'd assume that "in orbit" requires the satellite to be in a stable orbit. Otherwise there'd be no point in using it as a benchmark.
Here's the main issue. NK has a lot of artillery along the border that can reach Seoul. That's a lot of damage and a lot of dead South Koreans. Were I PoTUS, I'd have a coordinated "first strike" of cluster munitions, artillery and naval gunfire to shock & awe the DMZ and areas north where their artillery and big guns are. Then I'd have airstrikes and naval gunfire bomb/shell hardened targets and that nuke plant they're using as well as the NK capital. Then the Marines would head up from the south and land along the coast and move inland, killing anyone who doesn't surrender. The push to the Chinese border should take less than a day. Chinese who move into NK would be legal targets and I'd have them hit hard.
I'd save the nukes for China in case a bloody nose doesn't convince them to choose their fights better.
Breotan wrote: Here's the main issue. NK has a lot of artillery along the border that can reach Seoul. That's a lot of damage and a lot of dead South Koreans. Were I PoTUS, I'd have a coordinated "first strike" of cluster munitions, artillery and naval gunfire to shock & awe the DMZ and areas north where their artillery and big guns are. Then I'd have airstrikes and naval gunfire bomb/shell hardened targets and that nuke plant they're using as well as the NK capital. Then the Marines would head up from the south and land along the coast and move inland, killing anyone who doesn't surrender. The push to the Chinese border should take less than a day. Chinese who move into NK would be legal targets and I'd have them hit hard.
I'd save the nukes for China in case a bloody nose doesn't convince them to choose their fights better.
The Chinese aren't going to back NK's play this time around, you'll notice they've been significantly distancing themselves. Even going so far as to openly support the new round of UN resolutions. North Korea has lost it's only friend. While Breotan's wording is a little rough "Killing any one who won't surrender" might be an accurate term for what would have to be done in the event of invading, and liberating North Korea. Their army reserves total most of their population and they have had a very long time to intimidate and brain wash these people...
If the war went hot China wouldn't touch NK with a ten foot pole. I'm not convinced Norht Korea can really nuke anything, assuming they can somehow get a nuke into an ICBM, and launch it it at the US. If they did that they still have to get past the aegis missile defense system that the US navy has, I believe the US deployed Aegis capable ships to the west coast in the past few weeks. If, and this is a big if, a nuke goes off on US soil, or even Japanese or South Korean soil, I think the US would be well within their rights to make North Korea not there anymore. Even in a conventional war, remember Georgia in 2008? Imagine something like that, an absolute pasting.
Breotan wrote: Here's the main issue. NK has a lot of artillery along the border that can reach Seoul. That's a lot of damage and a lot of dead South Koreans. Were I PoTUS, I'd have a coordinated "first strike" of cluster munitions, artillery and naval gunfire to shock & awe the DMZ and areas north where their artillery and big guns are. Then I'd have airstrikes and naval gunfire bomb/shell hardened targets and that nuke plant they're using as well as the NK capital. Then the Marines would head up from the south and land along the coast and move inland, killing anyone who doesn't surrender. The push to the Chinese border should take less than a day. Chinese who move into NK would be legal targets and I'd have them hit hard.
I'd save the nukes for China in case a bloody nose doesn't convince them to choose their fights better.
And thus, Breotan eloquently explains why he is not our President.
An invasion of the mainland would be difficult to pull off, First we know there are between 12-27 nuclear weapons and that none of them are capable of being launched (to large) so you use them defensively, second you have 24 million people who are brainwashed to kill Americans (9 million of those forming the military).
Now lets put ourselves in The Great Successor's shoes, First we look over the terrain of our country and determine where the American Ground forces would attack from and what routes they would take to arrive at the Capital, Knowing this we take the nukes we have and Hide them in key location along those different routes (Some near the DMV while saving some for our capital). Okay now the American have Landed and our overall goal is to wipe out the largest portion of the main force with one of the nukes, so we need our Meatshield army to either Draw/push the American Forces over the various nukes. But lets say that the Americans Evade all of our hidden nukes, and are now rolling on to the Capital, we Wait for the bulk of the ground fighting force to be within the city or close enough to be affected by the Radiation, and set the remaining nukes off.
but then agian that would be my Strategy for a Very blood and very violent Defence in which I would lose in the End but I but I made the Enemy Suffer... a lot. Heck then there is the damage the radiation would cause to that part of asia
If North Korea lit the fuse on a Nuke. I think China'd step up with us too. Thats crossing a huge line. They've pretty much already lost there only friend. NK lights a nuke off and china would probably be on their ass too. Its damn close to their territory to be blowing those suckers up
DA's Forever wrote: If North Korea lit the fuse on a Nuke. I think China'd step up with us too. Thats crossing a huge line. They've pretty much already lost there only friend. NK lights a nuke off and china would probably be on their ass too. Its damn close to their territory to be blowing those suckers up
Why? China is actively enjoying this. They could shut this down at any time by turning off the gas, but they don't. It helps to keep us distracted while they expand in the Pacific.
DA's Forever wrote: If North Korea lit the fuse on a Nuke. I think China'd step up with us too. Thats crossing a huge line. They've pretty much already lost there only friend. NK lights a nuke off and china would probably be on their ass too. Its damn close to their territory to be blowing those suckers up
Why? China is actively enjoying this. They could shut this down at any time by turning off the gas, but they don't. It helps to keep us distracted while they expand in the Pacific.
You're joking right? Because China wouldn't want all that fallout to possibly blow over their land? That fallout could screw up the sea around North Korea? China doesn't care about the enviornment, but that many potential industry and workers being put at risk isn't something they would take lightly I'm sure. Having a nuke blow up practically right next door isn't a joke, even if its some crappy North Korean one.
If it stayed a conventional ground war I'd doubt they would care though. They're probably watching the North Koreans even harder than we are.
KingCracker wrote: Im pretty sure America would say "Awww look at that tiny nuke! Here NK, play with some of our M.O.A.B.s, enjoy *pats head*"
You do realize that a MOAB has a blast yield of around 0.01 kilotons, whereas the North Korean nukes have blast yields of more than 12 kilotons? You're not matching that without another nuclear weapon.
Why on earth would you think I am joking. China doesn't want a nuke war - agreed and wouldn't let a real war start except by accident. But they have no problem letting their dog bark and distract the neighbors.
KingCracker wrote: Im pretty sure America would say "Awww look at that tiny nuke! Here NK, play with some of our M.O.A.B.s, enjoy *pats head*"
You do realize that a MOAB has a blast yield of around 0.01 kilotons, whereas the North Korean nukes have blast yields of more than 12 kilotons? You're not matching that without another nuclear weapon.
Yes, but we can drop enough MOABs to level their country without the fallout problem. Those are Eco-friendly bombs
KingCracker wrote: Im pretty sure America would say "Awww look at that tiny nuke! Here NK, play with some of our M.O.A.B.s, enjoy *pats head*"
You do realize that a MOAB has a blast yield of around 0.01 kilotons, whereas the North Korean nukes have blast yields of more than 12 kilotons? You're not matching that without another nuclear weapon.
Yes, but we can drop enough MOABs to level their country without the fallout problem. Those are Eco-friendly bombs
Not sure if serious. You don't strategically bomb an entire country with nothing but MOABs. They're not general purpouse bombs, and they're not cheap.
Come on guys...we all know that if NK wouldn't dare to nuke Japan. Because Japan is source of all anime and mangas in the world and everybody loves anime and manga
Not only that, I bet that they wouldn't t move a muscle without China and Russia support. And I seriously doubt that China and Russia want to see nuclear winter.
KingCracker wrote: Im pretty sure America would say "Awww look at that tiny nuke! Here NK, play with some of our M.O.A.B.s, enjoy *pats head*"
You do realize that a MOAB has a blast yield of around 0.01 kilotons, whereas the North Korean nukes have blast yields of more than 12 kilotons? You're not matching that without another nuclear weapon.
Yes, but we can drop enough MOABs to level their country without the fallout problem. Those are Eco-friendly bombs
Not sure if serious. You don't strategically bomb an entire country with nothing but MOABs. They're not general purpouse bombs, and they're not cheap.
Aye. Each GBU-43/B MOAB costs 14.6 million US$. And "Eco-friendly" might also be a bit...optimistic - I'm not sure what byproducts might be left after the detonation, but the explosive itself - mostly RDX - is supposedly poisonous and carcinogenic. (Yes, other bombs will do that too,but since this is the second biggest conventional bomb in the world, any poisonous after-effects might be more relevant.)
KingCracker wrote: Im pretty sure America would say "Awww look at that tiny nuke! Here NK, play with some of our M.O.A.B.s, enjoy *pats head*"
You do realize that a MOAB has a blast yield of around 0.01 kilotons, whereas the North Korean nukes have blast yields of more than 12 kilotons? You're not matching that without another nuclear weapon.
Yes, but we can drop enough MOABs to level their country without the fallout problem. Those are Eco-friendly bombs
Not sure if serious. You don't strategically bomb an entire country with nothing but MOABs. They're not general purpouse bombs, and they're not cheap.
Aye. Each GBU-43/B MOAB costs 14.6 million US$. And "Eco-friendly" might also be a bit...optimistic - I'm not sure what byproducts might be left after the detonation, but the explosive itself - mostly RDX - is supposedly poisonous and carcinogenic. (Yes, other bombs will do that too,but since this is the second biggest conventional bomb in the world, any poisonous after-effects might be more relevant.)
Only 14 million? pfft, we lob cruise missiles in bunches and they're a million a pop (give or take).
I wonder how many of these we can load up on the B-2 or B-52s?
A MOAB is not a very feasable weapon. It has to be delivered by air drop. Yanked out of the back of a C-130/C-17 when you deploy it's chute.
As for AA capabilities. Probably not all that good. Their SAM batteries are probably 30-40 years old. Our Wild Weasel's would probably make short work of them. AMRAAM missiles do wonders in screwing with guidance technology.
djones520 wrote: A MOAB is not a very feasable weapon. It has to be delivered by air drop. Yanked out of the back of a C-130/C-17 when you deploy it's chute.
As for AA capabilities. Probably not all that good. Their SAM batteries are probably 30-40 years old. Our Wild Weasel's would probably make short work of them. AMRAAM missiles do wonders in screwing with guidance technology.
AMRAAM is a BVR air-to-air missile. It does feth-all to ground-based air defense. AGM-88 HARMS on the other hand...
I say just send in the B-2s with CBU-97s and 103s. In a week or so, they won't have much of an army left.
1 million active personnel.
8 million or so reservists.
50 airfields in various states of use Along with underground Shelters for most aircraft.
A couple of thousand APC's.
Plenty of SAM's.
And a populace that could be whipped into a rabid, entrenched defensive state in no time.
A strike should cripple NK's nuclear ambitions but would only harden the regiemes grip on their people. Ditto a strike against sites that could target the US and her allies.
You assume those 9 (1+8) million will fight loyally and take up arms for the Leader.
I have no love for US foreign policy but even less for NKs domestic.
Have you been to NK btw?
A very close friend of mine has, and whilst it isnt objective cannon (wtf is?), his view, is that the general populace dont give a flying about the Regime or "the external enemy".
Simply trying to make a living/education/get fuel and food is much more a concern. Oh! also being able to express your views openly.
Not really, just sounds like humans. If we go with Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs we could say that most of NK society is focused on the lower tiers. Those of survival.
Apparently the luxury goods black market thrives in North Korea.
Or a well executed preemptive tactical strike on the leadership of NK with a tomahawk should to the trick.
Cut off the head and the snake dies with it sort of thing. There is no real need to even invade NK with a huge land army if the indigenous people lack the will (for better or worse) to fight.
Its only the hard core fanatics that could be a problem.
A single Tomahawk?
Vs who/what/when?
No collateral damage?
Timing/execution/planning?
Intel - got a "Call of Duty Black" ops gut on the ground?
All of that VS letting some desspot rattle on and maybe, just maybe, the Western World allowing aid ( humanitarian aid) into NK and helping the general populace feed/live/educate/grow/learn/mobilise.
If we go with Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs we could say that most of NK society is focused on the lower tiers
Yes in a twisted way you are right: and eventually you end up with a populace that isnt scared of some banner on a wall or a rallying call to crush your neighbours.
Look my holier than thou solution isnt perfect, but its a dam sight better than the sabre rattling BS that goes on elsewhere. "ah shure a few tomahawks 'r AC130s 'ill sort 'em chief!" HOORAH!
This is gonna sound selfish, but could they hold off till summer? I'm fine getting called up if we have to go but I'd like to finish my vacation first. Then I'll go wherever the U.S. needs me to, and if that means putting these idiots in the ground and liberating the people of North Korea from one of the last truly insane despots left (Saddam was just a donkey cave, let's be honest) then I'll ruck up.
US Air Force B-2 stealth bomber flies over near Osan US Air Base south of Seoul, South Korea. Photo: AP
Update: A South Korean source says there’s been a sharp increase in personnel and vehicle movement at the North’s mid- and long-range missile sites as tension on the divided peninsula rises.
The revelation, which the Yonhap news agency attributes to an unidentified South Korean military official, came after North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered preparations for strategic rocket strikes on US targets following US stealth bomber training runs over South Korea.
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel says Washington won’t be cowed by Pyongyang’s bellicose threats and stands ready to respond to any eventuality.
Mr Kim directed his rocket units on standby to strike at the United States and its Pacific bases at an overnight emergency meeting with top army commanders.
Mr Kim says the time has come to settle accounts with the United States, but experts doubt that North Korea has the capability to strike at the US mainland.
Earlier, the United States warned the danger from North Korea was rising and that Washington was ready for "any eventuality" after flying two nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers over ally South Korea.
The US defied North Korean threats of retribution and took the rare step of announcing that the state-of-the-art jets flew from the US for the exercises.
Mr Hagel, dismissing suggestions that the B-2 mission could aggravate tensions, said the US was committed to "unequivocally defend" South Korea as well as Japan.
"We will be prepared – we have to be prepared – to deal with any eventuality," Mr Hagel said at the Pentagon on Thursday. "We must make clear that these provocations by the North are taken by us very seriously and we'll respond to that."
The two B-2s flew 20,800 kilometres from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri and back without stopping after demonstrating a precision strike by dropping ordnance on a target range in South Korea.
In response, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered preparations for rocket strikes on the US mainland and military bases in the Pacific and South Korea.
The order was issued at an overnight emergency meeting with top army commanders.
In the event of any "reckless" US provocation, North Korean forces should "mercilessly strike the US mainland ... military bases in the Pacific, including Hawaii and Guam, and those in South Korea", he was quoted as saying by the official Korean Central News Agency.
The flight came as part of annual drills between the United States and South Korea, which North Korea each year denounces as preparations for war but which have drawn particularly fierce criticism this time.
In recent months North Korea, under its young leader, has launched a long-range rocket, tested a third nuclear bomb and threatened destruction of US bases in the region and attacks on the US mainland.
Mr Kim argued that the stealth bomber flights went beyond a simple demonstration of force and amounted to a US "ultimatum that they will ignite a nuclear war at any cost".
Present at the emergency meeting on Thursday were the head of the Korean People's Army chief of general staff, director of operations and commander of strategic rocket operations.
Despite the furious reaction, Pyongyang has been careful not to allow tensions to affect the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a joint South-North venture that provides the regime crucial with hard currency.
Pyongyang announced on Wednesday that it was severing its military hotline with South Korea, saying it was no longer needed, given that "war may break out any moment".
The severed military hotline had been used on a daily basis to organise movements in and out of the zone, which lies 10 kilometres into North Korea and was set up during a period of reconciliation.
North Korea has cut off the hotline before, most recently in March 2009, but the line was reconnected less than two weeks later.
1 million active personnel.
8 million or so reservists.
50 airfields in various states of use Along with underground Shelters for most aircraft.
A couple of thousand APC's.
Plenty of SAM's.
And a populace that could be whipped into a rabid, entrenched defensive state in no time.
A strike should cripple NK's nuclear ambitions but would only harden the regiemes grip on their people. Ditto a strike against sites that could target the US and her allies.
One additional benefit of the coming Zombie apocalypse is having the entire country disappear into cave complexes and not be heard of again. You have to thank the zombies for that.
1 million active personnel.
8 million or so reservists.
50 airfields in various states of use Along with underground Shelters for most aircraft.
A couple of thousand APC's.
Plenty of SAM's.
And a populace that could be whipped into a rabid, entrenched defensive state in no time.
A strike should cripple NK's nuclear ambitions but would only harden the regiemes grip on their people. Ditto a strike against sites that could target the US and her allies.
One additional benefit of the coming Zombie apocalypse is having the entire country disappear into cave complexes and not be heard of again. You have to thank the zombies for that.
Ah the Zombie Survival Guide. where the world is better after the Apocalypse than before.
Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
I think the idea of just picking off Kim and his senior staff is fraught with peril. You really don't know what kind of monster that might unleash, especially given a place as nutty as the DPRK. You might get some general taking over who's genuinely, suicidally, let's-fire-up-the-nukes-and-burn-this-mutha-down crazy instead of Kim-style yoohoo-I'm-a-madman-rattling-my-toy-saber-now-give-me-some-aid-crazy-like-a-fox.
Whether or not the Kims are the ones in charge, the danger continues to be the possibility of massive civilian casualties in a huge city within spitting distance of the DPRK. This insane situation exists because it's extraordinarily tricky.
gorgon wrote: Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys base this on? Do you think any percentage would be fanatical (and perhaps make the occupation/reunification resemble Iraq in 2006?)
I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
North Korea has now threatened Austin, Texas. Undoubtedly Dear Leader has learned of the hidden Wiener Dog headquarters located there. The Wife was not impressed. And I quote "Bring it, we are locked and loaded here." Thats my baby!
Plus she can rest, safe and assured that Wiener Dog Command has more than adequate protections against the NK menace.
gorgon wrote: Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys base this on? Do you think any percentage would be fanatical (and perhaps make the occupation/reunification resemble Iraq in 2006?)
I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
Knowing for a fact that people get smuggled out because they know they're living in a hellhole is part of it. Recognizing that the DPRK relentlessly crafts its propaganda to suggest that every man, woman and child there is a fanatic is another part. Being a human being and understanding human motivation fills in most of the rest.
To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying that some fanaticism and resistance wouldn't exist, just that it's likely that most North Koreans realize that they're being oppressed, and that they'd likely be fine to see their dictator go as long as their family's basic needs were still met or improved (which didn't happen in Iraq). There will be those who get disenfranchised and won't like it very much. But that's not going to happen down ethnic and religious fracture lines and stir up ancient grudges in Korea. I also think that China and Iran have very different motivations regarding their respective neighbors.
gorgon wrote: Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys base this on? Do you think any percentage would be fanatical (and perhaps make the occupation/reunification resemble Iraq in 2006?)
I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
Knowing for a fact that people get smuggled out because they know they're living in a hellhole is part of it. Recognizing that the DPRK relentlessly crafts its propaganda to suggest that every man, woman and child there is a fanatic is another part. Being a human being and understanding human motivation fills in most of the rest.
To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying that some fanaticism and resistance wouldn't exist, just that it's likely that most North Koreans realize that they're being oppressed, and that they'd likely be fine to see their dictator go as long as their family's basic needs were still met or improved (which didn't happen in Iraq). There will be those who get disenfranchised and won't like it very much. But that's not going to happen down ethnic and religious fracture lines and stir up ancient grudges in Korea. I also think that China and Iran have very different motivations regarding their respective neighbors.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Russia during WW2 after Stalin had already starved millions to death and killed millions others in camps or purges.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Soviet Union during WW2...
Little correction, Russia was only one country of the Union - the Union was composed of 14 other countries, each of them contributed soldiers to the Red Army.
And back then you didn't have Nukes and advanced technology like today, to wage the same war like that would be suicide.
The best one small country can do today is guerrilla warfare ( Afghanistan and Vietnam are excellent examples of this ), and even then it really depends on the people.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Soviet Union during WW2...
Little correction, Russia was only one country of the Union - the Union was composed of 14 other countries, each of them contributed soldiers to the Red Army.
And back then you didn't have Nukes and advanced technology like today, to wage the same war like that would be suicide.
The best one small country can do today is guerrilla warfare ( Afghanistan and Vietnam are excellent examples of this ), and even then it really depends on the people.
The fact remains the there was a fairly determined defense by the Soviets that is pretty widly achknowledged to have been the big reason for Hitler's defeat. Who really knows what China will do in all of this? One thing I've learned from reading history is that the most reasoned and logical supposition of what someone may or may not do can go out the window in events like this.
North Korea has no capacity to do anything beyond lob a few missiles in the general direction of South Korea (or China if it was feeling really stupid).
This all about making the Kim look tough in the eyes of his people.
I'm still given to thinking that its posturing, but it would be interesting for all this nonsense to end.
Yeah. "Hey, guys, soooo, just wanted to repeat for the 12th time this month, we really hate you, and we want to bleed you dry, m'kay? Cool, bye bro!!'' It get's old after a while.
As the BBC news Seoul correspondent put it, "everyone's just waiting for the North Koreans to blink (* now where's my coffee)". I doubt that the current government of the DPRK will be removed via military action. More likely for the people (or more like the middle class black marketers) to eventually get fed up enough with them to enforce some change.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Russia during WW2 after Stalin had already starved millions to death and killed millions others in camps or purges.
There are some interesting cases in history. 1956 October revolution. The Russians crashed the Hungarian party. The army says, " you don't want out of the soviet bloc, but you just want your won democratically elected communist party? Uh. I'm actually fine with that". Then the Russians sent a second crew to crash the party again and recover the military equipment that had wandered over to the other side....
Hardly a media creation. Those ranges are estimates made by our intelligence services based on what they know about the missiles.
But given that we are aware of every time they fire a missile, and they haven't even tried another test of the Taepodong 2 in 7 years, just shows how little threat their really is of them striking US soil.
Now... on the other hand, I was there in Japan when back in the 90's they flew one of their missiles directly over our base, just showing that they do have the capability of still striking at American assets.
Breotan wrote: Here's the main issue. NK has a lot of artillery along the border that can reach Seoul. That's a lot of damage and a lot of dead South Koreans. Were I PoTUS, I'd have a coordinated "first strike" of cluster munitions, artillery and naval gunfire to shock & awe the DMZ and areas north where their artillery and big guns are. Then I'd have airstrikes and naval gunfire bomb/shell hardened targets and that nuke plant they're using as well as the NK capital. Then the Marines would head up from the south and land along the coast and move inland, killing anyone who doesn't surrender. The push to the Chinese border should take less than a day. Chinese who move into NK would be legal targets and I'd have them hit hard.
I'd save the nukes for China in case a bloody nose doesn't convince them to choose their fights better.
The real trick is, that's pretty mountainous terrain and the NK have had a LOT of time to dig in. "Bunkers" doesn't begin to describe it. "Maginot Line" is proably closer... without the pesky exposed flank to run around.
There are other weapons, not relying on brute force, you can hardly run or hide from that are devastating not only due to their deadliness but also in regard to the effect on the enemy's moral but are generally frowned upon...
I thought their only "successful" cruise missile tests had crashed into the sea of Japan? Where are they getting these range estimates from?
I'm thinking that this is just the usual media nonsense exacerbating a threat to make for better ratings...
No, they got a satellite into orbit successfully. The US confirmed it. This has to be like the third time I've told you when you've posted something similar.
You know, while the rest of the world makes themselves all scared because it's exciting to get scared, even over something as silly NK firing nukes at the US... I'm disappointed to see gamers taking it seriously. You've all played Civilisation. North Korea is that pissweak nation that keeps interupting your march towards Stealth Bombers by declaring war, even though they only just got Pottery because you gave it to them out of pity.
1 million active personnel.
8 million or so reservists.
50 airfields in various states of use Along with underground Shelters for most aircraft.
A couple of thousand APC's.
Plenty of SAM's.
And a populace that could be whipped into a rabid, entrenched defensive state in no time.
A strike should cripple NK's nuclear ambitions but would only harden the regiemes grip on their people. Ditto a strike against sites that could target the US and her allies.
The regime is teetering on the edge. The people know they exist in a state of terrible poverty compared to the rest of the world. Far from having the problem of having to dig out millions of reservists willing to fight to the death, the problem is one of handling millions of refugees looking to escape a totalitarian regime that just collapsed.
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CptJake wrote: I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
From the statements and reports of Asian foreign policy experts, coupled with anecdotes from friends who've visited the country.
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Relapse wrote: One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Russia during WW2 after Stalin had already starved millions to death and killed millions others in camps or purges.
Actually partisan activity in the occupied territories was negligible, almost irrelevant, in the early stages of the war. Many welcomed the Nazis are liberators. It was only when the reality of Nazi occupation and their own brutality became apparent that we saw meaningful partisan activity.
And there's also the issue that while we think of North and South Korea as two different countries... well that isn't the case in the minds of most Koreans. And while the US and its airpower is essential to the rapid destruction of the conventional NK army, the boots on the ground work will be done by South Korean troops. That isn't occuption by a tyrant, that's reunification after a couple of generations of rule under tyrants.
No, they got a satellite into orbit successfully. The US confirmed it. This has to be like the third time I've told you when you've posted something similar.
This was my first post in this thread, WTH are you talking about?
They put a satellite into low orbit after how many failed attempts? A satellite that isn't even stable and so they can't communicate with it... That doesn't exactly scream "precision missile strike capability" to me it rather seems to indicate that they got lucky this one time.
Also, reports indicate that they can't fit their nuclear weapons in their cruise missiles, so all this scaremongering is about some conventional warheads in their hypothetical cruise missiles? Didn't Saddam have those back in 91? Isn't SK's and Japan's missile defence systems at least the equal of what the US gave Saudi Arabia and Israel back then?
This is just another "bird flu crisis" designed to scare the general public into watching the nightly news and buying the morning paper. As long as the good guys don't do something stupid and get China involved, NK can't do anything more than sabre rattling...
You are confusing 'cruise missile' with the ICBM types the norks are trying to fit a nuke to. They are very different in function and design.
As long as the good guys don't do something stupid and get China involved, NK can't do anything more than sabre rattling...
If you call shelling an island and capping a few folks, and sinking a ROK warship sabre rattling... I suspect they actually could do more if they wanted to.
sebster wrote: You know, while the rest of the world makes themselves all scared because it's exciting to get scared, even over something as silly NK firing nukes at the US... I'm disappointed to see gamers taking it seriously. You've all played Civilisation. North Korea is that pissweak nation that keeps interupting your march towards Stealth Bombers by declaring war, even though they only just got Pottery because you gave it to them out of pity.
You mean that pissweak nation with powerful friends who have an interest in keeping them as a buffer to shield a border?
CptJake wrote: You are confusing 'cruise missile' with the ICBM types the norks are trying to fit a nuke to. They are very different in function and design.
.
And those don't work as well as their cruise missiles. Which as we've established, don't.
If you call shelling an island and capping a few folks, and sinking a ROK warship sabre rattling... I suspect they actually could do more if they wanted to.
Yep, that is exactly what I call shelling an island with conventional artillery and sinking a RoK CORVETTE with a torpedo.
It requires quite a bit of speculation to go from those capabilities to being able to fire nuclear tipped missiles thousands of kilometres away...
PhantomViper wrote: This is just another "bird flu crisis" designed to scare the general public into watching the nightly news and buying the morning paper. As long as the good guys don't do something stupid and get China involved, NK can't do anything more than sabre rattling...
Sort of but not really. The threats to the US are comically overstated (not only are the missiles capable of reaching the US not capable of carrying their nuke warheads, but there is a massive difference between a rocket with that range and one capable of being able to be reliably guided over that distance - in the scheme of a rocket travelling across the Pacific even LA is a precise target).
But that doesn't mean North Korea is incapable of causing serious damage. Just with conventional weapons they've got thousands of artillery pieces and rocket batteries capable of hitting Seoul and killing god knows how many.
There is a real threat and a real concern here, even if the 'OMG Americans are in danger' reporting in some American news is stupid.
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Dreadclaw69 wrote: You mean that pissweak nation with powerful friends who have an interest in keeping them as a buffer to shield a border?
No, I don't, because that'd require pretending Chinese policy towards North Korea is the same as it was in the 1970s.
At this point China's primary interest is in the status quo, because they don't want a refugee crisis on their border. And they can't be blamed for that, anyone would act the same.
The first thing I would point out is that any time lil kim mouths off and threatens anyone, the media runs with the ball of panic. My general policy is to become worried when and if the S. Korean friends and co workers around me do. Till then I refuse to waste energy with useless worry.
Yes, the North has done some very unfortunate stunts in the last few years. The island shelling and the sinking of the "Cheonan" naval vessel for example. I visited the memorial exhibit for the crew of the Cheonan. The really sad part was that of the 46 sailors who died in the attack, most were in their early twenties. S. Korea requires all men over 18 to serve two years in the armed forces so they were essentially legal conscripts in a manner of speaking. With all respect, the crew looked to be mostly recent high school graduates.
The news has reported every time a U.S. ship or plane moves around and every whisper they hear from the North. The only thing that has changed situation wise in daily life is that a few places (such as police stations) have been running extra tactical drills in full Korean swat uniforms with assault rifles. Also, in Seoul, some train lines have begun showing cartoon war propaganda psa videos on their trains.
I can't predict what's going to happen any more than anyone else but I really do doubt that anything more than posturing will happen. I hope for peace. Enough people already died here the last time around.
Just watched the Vice Guide to North Korea. While I'm skeptical about anything said by Shane in the video (the whole tunnel thing and NK seemingly able to rolfstomp the South at any time, or his opinion on their schooling system), it's still cool to see the interactions with the people.
Yes, they seem crazy. But I still think it's not the kind of crazy that you should be scared of, more the kind you should pity.
Now with Kaesong closed...I feel we're one step closer. NK just cut its very own economy and now we're seeing missile defense units brought to SK.
China continues to be a state of evil themselves and remain lethargic despite being the state with the biggest potential influence on the slowed part of Korea.
SEOUL — North Korea dramatically escalated its warlike rhetoric on Thursday, warning that it had authorised plans for nuclear strikes on targets in the United States.
"The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the North Korean military said, warning that war could break out "today or tomorrow".
Pyongyang's latest pronouncement came as Washington scrambled to reinforce its Pacific missile defences, preparing to send ground-based interceptors to Guam and dispatching two Aegis class destroyers to the region.
Tension was also high on the North's heavily-fortified border with South Korea, after Kim Jong-Un's isolated regime barred South Koreans from entering a Seoul-funded joint industrial park on its side of the frontier.
In a statement published by the state KCNA news agency, the Korean People's Army general staff warned Washington that US threats would be "smashed by... cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means".
"The merciless operation of our revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified," the statement said.
Last month, North Korea threatened a "pre-emptive" nuclear strike against the United States, and last week its supreme army command ordered strategic rocket units to combat status.
But, while Pyongyang has successfully carried out test nuclear detonations, most experts think it is not yet capable of mounting a device on a ballistic missile capable of striking US bases or territory.
We're playing Nuclear chicken from the looks of things.
Not to insult anyone, but I don't even think the NK knows a nuke from their elbow.
As for playing nuclear chicken/roulette, well, their in for a hell of a fight. USA is the only country to use a Nuke in warfare, unless I'm severely lacking a major part of my Cold War history specification. Not only did they use it, but they used it twice for overkill and total obliteration. I'm certain they'd have another 1 or 100 ready to go in the blink of an eye.
So yeah, NK playing roulette? NK with a revolver, US with a minigun.
Curiously enough, me and a few other chaps who did War Studies postgrad ran a theoretical strategy session to try and figure out a way for how the North could beat the South.
The best we could come up with was a highly implausible plan involving a lot of tunnels, a fleet of secretly developed submarine troop carriers, and a nuke capable of hitting the States(to keep the US out).
The U.S. could wipe North Korea from the face of the earth in a blaze of nuclear fire from a single Ohio class SSBN's payload,hell all the missiles on one Boomer would be overkill to the point of madness.
I can't help but continue to believe this is posturing. No one is that fething suicidal that they'd intentionally set their nation up to be completely destroyed.
I think they are acting like that only to show that they have mussels.
Nobody is stupid enough to launch missiles at another country, the only thing they can do is invade south via ground and sea. But they cannot expect the same result as ~60 years ago.
KalashnikovMarine wrote: The U.S. could wipe North Korea from the face of the earth in a blaze of nuclear fire from a single Ohio class SSBN's payload,hell all the missiles on one Boomer would be overkill to the point of madness.
I can't help but continue to believe this is posturing. No one is that fething suicidal that they'd intentionally set their nation up to be completely destroyed.
The only problem is that these are still humans, evil and corrupted, but they are still human. I feel like this thread is kind of dehumanizing the North Koreans.
Just saying just reading the comments. :/ Unless i am misinterpreting which is entirely possible.
KalashnikovMarine wrote: The U.S. could wipe North Korea from the face of the earth in a blaze of nuclear fire from a single Ohio class SSBN's payload,hell all the missiles on one Boomer would be overkill to the point of madness.
I can't help but continue to believe this is posturing. No one is that fething suicidal that they'd intentionally set their nation up to be completely destroyed.
Well, it could be that their glorious leader(s) have started to believe their own rhetoric. They've brainwashed themselves into thinking they can win.
Which could lead to a stupid decision, stupid from our perspective anyway.
KalashnikovMarine wrote: The U.S. could wipe North Korea from the face of the earth in a blaze of nuclear fire from a single Ohio class SSBN's payload,hell all the missiles on one Boomer would be overkill to the point of madness.
I can't help but continue to believe this is posturing. No one is that fething suicidal that they'd intentionally set their nation up to be completely destroyed.
Only if we had the balls to shoot back with nukes in kind. I don't think we do.
ExNoctemNacimur wrote: What? That much? I thought that they dropped boiling oil from tall towers, or at the most dropped big rocks from hot air balloons.
That'd require fuel, either to heat the oil or fuel the hot air balloon.
Whereas the Mig has been redesigned by Kim Jong Un to run directly on the love the people of North Korea have for their glorious leader, and not any of the decadent western fuel.
KalashnikovMarine wrote: The U.S. could wipe North Korea from the face of the earth in a blaze of nuclear fire from a single Ohio class SSBN's payload,hell all the missiles on one Boomer would be overkill to the point of madness.
I can't help but continue to believe this is posturing. No one is that fething suicidal that they'd intentionally set their nation up to be completely destroyed.
Only if we had the balls to shoot back with nukes in kind. I don't think we do.
I'm not sure the US populace would stand for not shooting Nukes back if someone tried or succeeded in using Nukes against the mainland US (this includes Hawaii and Alaska). This wouldn't be a terrorist attack where we wouldn't have a target. Remember what happened to the last country that actually attacked the United States proper, we dropped a 2 a-bombs on them.
I do hope it's sabre rattling though. While I wouldn't have a single issue with a US decision to turn NK into glass I do feel a little bad that so many people would die for their leaders stupid decisions. But them's the breaks.
Definitly, if they attempt or succeed in nuking us, even if they just hit SK and catch a bunch of our guys in the blast, I say we glass the place.
Or, we could be funny with our deployment of bombs and hit everywhere except the major population centers. Make it so you can't leave any of the cities, they'd effectivly be cut off by nuclear wastelands.
Grey Templar wrote: Definitly, if they attempt or succeed in nuking us, even if they just hit SK and catch a bunch of our guys in the blast, I say we glass the place.
Or, we could be funny with our deployment of bombs and hit everywhere except the major population centers. Make it so you can't leave any of the cities, they'd effectivly be cut off by nuclear wastelands.
realllly didn't stop the soviets from sending their men into the nuclear wastes, now did it?
As someone with Korean friends, and regular contact with the country though I would make a few comments.
This is all still nonsense. Koreans still aren't worried, but there is one caveat - the US moving military stuff around, giving so much credence to what Kim Jong Un has been saying (nonsense that has been going on for many decades, with exactly the same terminology used), has started to concern people.
Koreans on both sides understand that war would mean the end for both sides. It's hard to convey this mindset to anyone who hasn't lived there and been amongst the culture, but there is a solemn understanding that civil war must never happen again. Everyone ignores the rhetoric from the north, which escalates or declines usually depending on how bad the food/money situation is, and how much the NK government is trying to distract the civilian population.
Chances are all of this is just for a big aid package to be sent their way - but, many in SK (and a lot of the news agencies there are running with this) is the escalation of what the US is doing, not because of the crap that Kim Jong Un has been spouting. They know the North and that there is no way it will attack, but the presence of a big power on the scene, which is seeming to start to develop and itchy trigger finger, is making them more nervous.
Pacific wrote: As someone with Korean friends, and regular contact with the country though I would make a few comments.
This is all still nonsense. Koreans still aren't worried, but there is one caveat - the US moving military stuff around, giving so much credence to what Kim Jong Un has been saying (nonsense that has been going on for many decades, with exactly the same terminology used), has started to concern people.
Koreans on both sides understand that war would mean the end for both sides. It's hard to convey this mindset to anyone who hasn't lived there and been amongst the culture, but there is a solemn understanding that civil war must never happen again. Everyone ignores the rhetoric from the north, which escalates or declines usually depending on how bad the food/money situation is, and how much the NK government is trying to distract the civilian population.
Chances are all of this is just for a big aid package to be sent their way - but, many in SK (and a lot of the news agencies there are running with this) is the escalation of what the US is doing, not because of the crap that Kim Jong Un has been spouting. They know the North and that there is no way it will attack, but the presence of a big power on the scene, which is seeming to start to develop and itchy trigger finger, is making them more nervous.
I don't mean to offend you in any way, but that speech instantly reminded me of Neville Chamberlain's statements in 1939.
I'm as anti-american as the next guy in the socialist hell hole of Europe, but when a mentally unstable dictator starts threatening nuclear holocaust and cutting lines of communication with some of their closest historical allies in the region, moving some defensive anti-missile systems to the region doesn't strike me as a "provocation", it strikes me as a sensible defensive measure.
Also this stopped being the same "business as usual" from the NK when they closed down the Kaesong complex denying themselves their only source of hard currency...
KalashnikovMarine wrote: The U.S. could wipe North Korea from the face of the earth in a blaze of nuclear fire from a single Ohio class SSBN's payload,hell all the missiles on one Boomer would be overkill to the point of madness.
I can't help but continue to believe this is posturing. No one is that fething suicidal that they'd intentionally set their nation up to be completely destroyed.
Only if we had the balls to shoot back with nukes in kind. I don't think we do.
Naw... we'd shoot back and then some.
Just remember how we felt when 9/11 happened.
I missed where we nuked Afghanistan.
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Pacific wrote: As someone with Korean friends, and regular contact with the country though I would make a few comments.
This is all still nonsense. Koreans still aren't worried, but there is one caveat - the US moving military stuff around, giving so much credence to what Kim Jong Un has been saying (nonsense that has been going on for many decades, with exactly the same terminology used), has started to concern people.
Koreans on both sides understand that war would mean the end for both sides. It's hard to convey this mindset to anyone who hasn't lived there and been amongst the culture, but there is a solemn understanding that civil war must never happen again. Everyone ignores the rhetoric from the north, which escalates or declines usually depending on how bad the food/money situation is, and how much the NK government is trying to distract the civilian population.
Chances are all of this is just for a big aid package to be sent their way - but, many in SK (and a lot of the news agencies there are running with this) is the escalation of what the US is doing, not because of the crap that Kim Jong Un has been spouting. They know the North and that there is no way it will attack, but the presence of a big power on the scene, which is seeming to start to develop and itchy trigger finger, is making them more nervous.
I have no problem getting the hell out of there too.
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea has moved a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast, South Korea's defense minister said Thursday, but he added that there are no signs that Pyongyang is preparing for a full-scale conflict.
The report came hours after North Korea's military warned that it has been authorized to attack the U.S. using "smaller, lighter and diversified" nuclear weapons. It was the North's latest war cry against America in recent weeks. The reference to smaller weapons could be a claim that Pyongyang has improved its nuclear technology. Or a bluff.
Ketara wrote: Curiously enough, me and a few other chaps who did War Studies postgrad ran a theoretical strategy session to try and figure out a way for how the North could beat the South.
The best we could come up with was a highly implausible plan involving a lot of tunnels, a fleet of secretly developed submarine troop carriers, and a nuke capable of hitting the States(to keep the US out).
I think the South is probably safe.
Are you sure you didn't do a post grad in Tom Clancy and Dale Brown plots?
PhantomViper wrote: I don't mean to offend you in any way, but that speech instantly reminded me of Neville Chamberlain's statements in 1939.
I'm as anti-american as the next guy in the socialist hell hole of Europe, but when a mentally unstable dictator starts threatening nuclear holocaust and cutting lines of communication with some of their closest historical allies in the region, moving some defensive anti-missile systems to the region doesn't strike me as a "provocation", it strikes me as a sensible defensive measure.
Also this stopped being the same "business as usual" from the NK when they closed down the Kaesong complex denying themselves their only source of hard currency...
Yeah, I was wondering how he got "The US is provoking poor little Kim Jong Un" from North Korea threatening the United States and South Korea with nuclear weapons.
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea has moved a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast, South Korea's defense minister said Thursday, but he added that there are no signs that Pyongyang is preparing for a full-scale conflict.
The report came hours after North Korea's military warned that it has been authorized to attack the U.S. using "smaller, lighter and diversified" nuclear weapons. It was the North's latest war cry against America in recent weeks. The reference to smaller weapons could be a claim that Pyongyang has improved its nuclear technology. Or a bluff.
Frazzled wrote: Why the hell are we even in South Korea at this point? Dude its been 60 years. Time to go.
Its because of the Armistice, guns may be lowered, but that doesn't mean that the fighting didn't stop, there has been a peace treaty war going on, the south koreans feel safer with the American Soldiers on the border. A lot of people know and feel like that the war could start up at any time. Plus with so many allies in the region, it is good to keep a leash on the country that tried to destroy the entire pacific. (Japan) and also on a very capable and threatening power. (North Korea)
Frazzled wrote: Why the hell are we even in South Korea at this point? Dude its been 60 years. Time to go.
Its because of the Armistice, guns may be lowered, but that doesn't mean that the fighting didn't stop, there has been a peace treaty war going on, the south koreans feel safer with the American Soldiers on the border. A lot of people know and feel like that the war could start up at any time. Plus with so many allies in the region, it is good to keep a leash on the country that tried to destroy the entire pacific. (Japan) and also on a very capable and threatening power. (North Korea)
We have troops in Japan. We don't need troops in SK. I don't care if they feel safer. If they want to feel safer, make a bigger military. We've done enough for them. Time to move on.
Grey Templar wrote: Definitly, if they attempt or succeed in nuking us, even if they just hit SK and catch a bunch of our guys in the blast, I say we glass the place
This pretty much. And if they decide to bunker down and go in for a war of atricion...there are other, more subtle...biological weapons. Like that annoying cockreach running under your fridge...
Does anyone know where I can get my hands on one of those big crazy commie Korean army hats like the guys in the background during Wonton's broadcasts wear? I really, REALLY want one. They're awesome and I need one. Willing to pay good money!
Pacific wrote: As someone with Korean friends, and regular contact with the country though I would make a few comments.
This is all still nonsense. Koreans still aren't worried, but there is one caveat - the US moving military stuff around, giving so much credence to what Kim Jong Un has been saying (nonsense that has been going on for many decades, with exactly the same terminology used), has started to concern people.
Koreans on both sides understand that war would mean the end for both sides. It's hard to convey this mindset to anyone who hasn't lived there and been amongst the culture, but there is a solemn understanding that civil war must never happen again. Everyone ignores the rhetoric from the north, which escalates or declines usually depending on how bad the food/money situation is, and how much the NK government is trying to distract the civilian population.
Chances are all of this is just for a big aid package to be sent their way - but, many in SK (and a lot of the news agencies there are running with this) is the escalation of what the US is doing, not because of the crap that Kim Jong Un has been spouting. They know the North and that there is no way it will attack, but the presence of a big power on the scene, which is seeming to start to develop and itchy trigger finger, is making them more nervous.
The crew of the Cheonan (PCC-772) knew there was no way the Norks would ever attack.
I think I saw on the Discovery Channel or one of the others, we have some kind of military 747 with a laser in it's nose that can just zap a person and make them spontaneously combust from miles away. Can't we just use that on Kim Jr and call it a day? Heck I'll fly it if someone gives me the keys...
whembly wrote: Point being... if we get nuked, by rock hard policy we retaliate. Otherwise, what's the point of having nukes? It's basic nuke deterance.
To obliterate your enemy. There's no requirement that they have to use nukes to do that. Indeed NATO policy was to use tactical nukes on invading USSR troops. You don't think crappy M60s kept them out of Western Europe do you?
Necros wrote: I think I saw on the Discovery Channel or one of the others, we have some kind of military 747 with a laser in it's nose that can just zap a person and make them spontaneously combust from miles away. Can't we just use that on Kim Jr and call it a day? Heck I'll fly it if someone gives me the keys...
That laser shoots down missiles. Zapping a person takes a lot more energy, we don't have anything that can really do that. yet...
whembly wrote: Point being... if we get nuked, by rock hard policy we retaliate. Otherwise, what's the point of having nukes? It's basic nuke deterance.
To obliterate your enemy. There's no requirement that they have to use nukes to do that. Indeed NATO policy was to use tactical nukes on invading USSR troops. You don't think crappy M60s kept them out of Western Europe do you?
Even missiles are something that needs to be hit right at launch.
When initially launched, you have a thin skinned aluminum body most likely under pressure -- especially if liquid fuelled. One pencil hole into the side will cause all sorts of havoc, al la Shuttle Challenger.
If it's just a warhead on the way, things get tougher.
Yeah, but its doubtful they have anything capable of reaching that stage. I'd put decent odds on any nuclear missile they do launch having a malfunction on the detonation. Either detonating prematurely in a large bang in the upper atmosphere(or on the launchsite) or simply failing to detonate at all. Still dangerous, but its a good chance of being dangerous to the firer.
The North won't go to war as it would be utter suicide.
Sure, they have a bigger army.
Their equipment is older and in worse condition than our fing Sea King's we still try to rescure people with for some damned reason!
The South has much more modern and advanced equipment thanks to the US and other allies, plus 28000 US troops already on the ground, along with roughly 40000+ who can be shipped in should a conflict ensure.
Not to mention the added ships & F22's the US has recently sent into the region.
We wouldn't even need nukes - NK's air power is laughable and regular ordinance can pound the point home that while they'd inflict some casulties, in the end, they'd lose big time in any kind of ground-based campaign.
SK's transportation system is also one of the finest in the world, allowing them to move people & equipment out of harm's way much more effectively than the dinosaur'ian "charging in the opposite direction" transit system the North would be relying on!
I think the main concern is more that the North *might* consider the use of some of their stockpiled chemical weapons... Mustard gas was no fun back in 1914-18. Probably hasn't gotten any healthier since then either.
Sure, they have a bigger army.
Their equipment is older and in worse condition than our fing Sea King's we still try to rescure people with for some damned reason!
The South has much more modern and advanced equipment thanks to the US and other allies, plus 28000 US troops already on the ground, along with roughly 40000+ who can be shipped in should a conflict ensure.
Not to mention the added ships & F22's the US has recently sent into the region.
We wouldn't even need nukes - NK's air power is laughable and regular ordinance can pound the point home that while they'd inflict some casulties, in the end, they'd lose big time in any kind of ground-based campaign.
SK's transportation system is also one of the finest in the world, allowing them to move people & equipment out of harm's way much more effectively than the dinosaur'ian "charging in the opposite direction" transit system the North would be relying on!
I think the main concern is more that the North *might* consider the use of some of their stockpiled chemical weapons... Mustard gas was no fun back in 1914-18. Probably hasn't gotten any healthier since then either.
just because everyone knows that putting a knife in the electrical socket is a tererible idea, doesn't mean some idiot child isn't going to try to determine for themselves whether there is a reason for which he shouldn't put knives into electrical outlets......................... just like some hopped up child trying to prove his superiority to his father's legacy, with an excessive quantity of testosterone and a lack of appreciation of the fact that, yeah, the world isn't going to let itself get taken out one by one, may just happen to decide to try to expand his tiny empire to include more real estate, even if it happens to be irradiated, it will at the very least serve as a nuclear testing ground so he doesn't have to spoil any of his own territory.....
The thing is you can't say "ah, it's the same old stuff". Kim Jong Un is no his father. He was born and raised not knowing world any different to North Korea now. He may believe that they can win a war. We just don't know how he will react as this is the first time this has happend since his father died.
I think that's kind of it, although you need to swap the woman for an image of a starved and confused worker who is wondering why he doesn't have enough food to eat, and why a distant cousin living 100 miles south of him buys a new car every 2 years and throws away more food than he gets to eat.
CptJake wrote:
The crew of the Cheonan (PCC-772) knew there was no way the Norks would ever attack.
Damn the US!
The sinking of the Cheonan was appalling (and arguably escalated things as high as they have ever been, to the point where a bunch of Americans I knew left SK because of it) but its not as simple as was generally reported. What was not reported was that the Cheonan was sat directly on the border, firing into Northern waters (at what it thought was an incoming attacker, but which turned out to be a flock of birds) just 30 minutes before it was hit by something.
The US/SK team that investigated the wreckage wouldn't let the Russians in on it, but the Russians who did get to see some of it later on commented that it didn't match what they had seen regarding NK armaments.
I would put the sinking of the Cheonan as something that is eventually going to happen when you have so much weight of military hardware floating and flying around in proximity to each other, so much willy-waving going on. Whether it was a friendly fire incident, NK purposefully torpedoed the ship or dropped a mine in its path (or the ship even hit one inadvertently) doesn't matter in terms of the loss of life, but using parlance appropriate for these forums if you keep playing games and rolling dice, eventually they are going to come up snake-eyes. And, I think that's why so many now are nervous with the amount of extra military hardware on its way to SK, rather than the intent behind it.
PhantomViper wrote:
I don't mean to offend you in any way, but that speech instantly reminded me of Neville Chamberlain's statements in 1939.
I'm as anti-american as the next guy in the socialist hell hole of Europe, but when a mentally unstable dictator starts threatening nuclear holocaust and cutting lines of communication with some of their closest historical allies in the region, moving some defensive anti-missile systems to the region doesn't strike me as a "provocation", it strikes me as a sensible defensive measure.
Also this stopped being the same "business as usual" from the NK when they closed down the Kaesong complex denying themselves their only source of hard currency...
Kaesong has been closed several times before, most recently in the 2000's. Same too with the phone lines being cut, hopefully as soon as the first thousand ton shipment of ramen arrives from the south it will all be opened up again.
Steve steveson wrote: The thing is you can't say "ah, it's the same old stuff". Kim Jong Un is no his father. He was born and raised not knowing world any different to North Korea now. He may believe that they can win a war. We just don't know how he will react as this is the first time this has happend since his father died.
I believe Young Mr. Un was educated in Switzerland actually.
Steve steveson wrote: The thing is you can't say "ah, it's the same old stuff". Kim Jong Un is no his father. He was born and raised not knowing world any different to North Korea now. He may believe that they can win a war. We just don't know how he will react as this is the first time this has happend since his father died.
I believe Young Mr. Un was educated in Switzerland actually.
Yes he was, and his brother has a love of Disney Land apparently. My point is that he has grown up believing, as 100% truth, that North Korea is the greatest country in the world and that it is strong. He may well think that everything said about his grand father, Dear Leader, is true. He may not but there is a risk that he is far more of a danger than his father. His father and grand father knew war and will have known, even if it was deep down inside, that allot of the political posturing was just that and nothing more.
Un has the possibility that he may believe what he says. We don't know for sure, but given that they seem to have nukes that might work it seems a big risk to dismiss it as the "same old same old".
Also, it's Mr Kim. Un, or possibly Jong Un (I'm not 100% sure as it gets written with a hyphen sometimes and I can't read Korean) is his given name. Kim is his surname. I learnt that the hard way offending a Japanese customer. You may know, but I like to think other people might avoid upsetting people if I tell them.
U.S. Military casualty estimates for the invasion of the Japanese home islands were over one million casualties taken over the course of the campaign (that's JUST the U.S. casualties) I would feel secure in saying that had the Soviets and United States invaded the Japanese home islands, Japan would mostly likely barely be a people or a nation today. Forcing the surrender and allowing for a relatively peaceful occupation and demilitarization of Imperial Japan was literally the best possible outcome. Not saying it's not terrible, war in all it's facets is terrible, however it remains that with the intelligence, and military capacity at the time, the nuclear strikes were deemed the best possible option to bring a decisive and immediate end to the war.
Maybe I'll feel differently after I visit Hiroshima this summer.
All government embassies have been instructed to evacuate staff from Pyongyang after dictator Kim Jong-un warned he could not 'guarantee the safety of foreigners.'
The rogue communist state issued a deadline of April 10 to every government that is represented in North Korea in a dramatic new escalation of the nuclear crisis.
Today the British Foreign Office confirmed it had been told its staff were at risk while Russia said it was in 'close contact with the U.S, China and South Korea' about airlifting workers out.
Advice for tourists is set to change after North Korea moved a second missile to its east coast, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.[
This is getting ridiculous... if you want to start a war then fire the damn missiles already! You are either going big or showing off, and North Korea cannot show off with the US or it's allies.
And frankly if they are so crazy to actually start a war with the US then I doubt that even China and Russia will intervene to save them. Moreover, I think that will sent troops to "safeguard" their territory ( in other words: take that territory for itself ).
Steve steveson wrote: The thing is you can't say "ah, it's the same old stuff". Kim Jong Un is no his father. He was born and raised not knowing world any different to North Korea now. He may believe that they can win a war. We just don't know how he will react as this is the first time this has happend since his father died.
Kim Jong Un spent years in Europe going to school.
Brother Captain Alexander wrote: This is getting ridiculous... if you want to start a war then fire the damn missiles already! You are either going big or showing off, and North Korea cannot show off with the US or it's allies.
And frankly if they are so crazy to actually start a war with the US then I doubt that even China and Russia will intervene to save them. Moreover, I think that will sent troops to "safeguard" their territory ( in other words: take that territory for itself ).
Set a deadline, ramp up threats and hope that the world caves in. Because that's not something he learned from his father or anything
Feels more like he's trying to goad us into hitting first so he can use any bio or nuke he wants and be like "boo hoo, I was just defending myself and those mean oppressors forced me to gas everyone!"
Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?
One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?
What are they going to do then?
In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.
Everyone's assuming it's the kid running the show, rather than the old guard who aren't all that happy about having to kowtow to a guy who's barely out of puberty.
Either way, if I were a nutbat dictator or a nutbat power-behind-the-throne, this is exactly the time when I'd start shaking things up, for a whole host of reasons.
Frazzled wrote: Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?
One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?
What are they going to do then?
In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.
This is it absolutely.
SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.
Frazzled wrote: Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?
One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?
What are they going to do then?
In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.
This is it absolutely.
SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.
Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...
Relapse wrote: Or the fact that they've already set off a couple.
Pretty much
I think that maybe this time we let the tantrum cry itself out. No food aid, no capitulations. For years we used the Sunshine Policy and that didn't work it just emboldened, so now they think that threats of force will instead. They've cut off one of the few factories that earns them foreign currency, let them bluster, put their allies in untenable positions until their support wanes and let them spin their wheels until they have nothing left.
And if they lash out we let them know that it was a Very Bad Idea (TM)
Relapse wrote: Or the fact that they've already set off a couple.
Pretty much
I think that maybe this time we let the tantrum cry itself out. No food aid, no capitulations. For years we used the Sunshine Policy and that didn't work it just emboldened, so now they think that threats of force will instead. They've cut off one of the few factories that earns them foreign currency, let them bluster, put their allies in untenable positions until their support wanes and let them spin their wheels until they have nothing left.
And if they lash out we let them know that it was a Very Bad Idea (TM)
That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.
Frazzled wrote: Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?
One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?
What are they going to do then?
In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.
This is it absolutely.
SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.
Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...
+1
I wish we'd stop all this aid crap to them as the only thing it really does is encourage & enable NK to continue acting like giant donkeycaves.
And if they do try and launch an attack?
Well, while our own military has learned to keep museum-quality gear in top running order, I highly doubt the NK's have...
Relapse wrote: That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.
Yeah, he's painting himself into a corner with finger paints I'm pretty sure China doesn't want North Korea doing anything silly, it could end up with China dealing with refugees from the conflict and a US sympathetic country on its border. That being said China is being surprisingly silent on this, and as one of North Korea's longest standing allies the international community's silence towards China is deafening. Had this been a US ally threatening a nuclear strike I'm sure China, Russia and others would be clamoring for the US to rein in their ally.
Relapse wrote: That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.
Yeah, he's painting himself into a corner with finger paints I'm pretty sure China doesn't want North Korea doing anything silly, it could end up with China dealing with refugees from the conflict and a US sympathetic country on its border. That being said China is being surprisingly silent on this, and as one of North Korea's longest standing allies the international community's silence towards China is deafening. Had this been a US ally threatening a nuclear strike I'm sure China, Russia and others would be clamoring for the US to rein in their ally.
I have a feeling that China let their barking dog off it's leash at first to distract the rest of the developed world from the spying scandals they've recently been caught red-handed in.
Then of corse, they lose total control of their yappy little pooch and now have to distance themselves as much as possible... The quieter they stay on the NK issue, the more likely it is that the US/SK and everyone else ignore their initial potential involvement.
And I doubt NK will be 'allowed' to launch a nuke... It's not like China or Russia would even entertain the idea of having potential fallout so near their own borders, let alone being remarked/remembered as "the crazy dude who tried to begin a nuclear armageddon's BFF."
Frazzled wrote: Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?
One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?
What are they going to do then?
In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.
This is it absolutely.
SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.
Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...
I think because the South still shares a feeling of kinship with the North. Despite everything that has happened, they are the same race of people, and have 2000 years of shared history.
Really I think it is what has made the whole thing so tragic (not that war isn't in all cases - but reading about the Korean War really makes you angry with the sense of injustice involved).
Frazzled wrote: Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?
One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?
What are they going to do then?
In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.
This is it absolutely.
SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.
Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...
I think because the South still shares a feeling of kinship with the North. Despite everything that has happened, they are the same race of people, and have 2000 years of shared history.
Really I think it is what has made the whole thing so tragic (not that war isn't in all cases - but reading about the Korean War really makes you angry with the sense of injustice involved).
The South Koreans I know hate North Korea with a passion, and they've told me that is the general feeling in the south. One of the women told me that she'd rather marry a Japanese than a North Korean, which says a lot about her feelings, anyway, since Japanese at the time were hated there.
Relapse wrote: That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.
Yeah, he's painting himself into a corner with finger paints I'm pretty sure China doesn't want North Korea doing anything silly, it could end up with China dealing with refugees from the conflict and a US sympathetic country on its border. That being said China is being surprisingly silent on this, and as one of North Korea's longest standing allies the international community's silence towards China is deafening. Had this been a US ally threatening a nuclear strike I'm sure China, Russia and others would be clamoring for the US to rein in their ally.
I have a feeling that China let their barking dog off it's leash at first to distract the rest of the developed world from the spying scandals they've recently been caught red-handed in.
Then of corse, they lose total control of their yappy little pooch and now have to distance themselves as much as possible... The quieter they stay on the NK issue, the more likely it is that the US/SK and everyone else ignore their initial potential involvement.
And I doubt NK will be 'allowed' to launch a nuke... It's not like China or Russia would even entertain the idea of having potential fallout so near their own borders, let alone being remarked/remembered as "the crazy dude who tried to begin a nuclear armageddon's BFF."
What exactly makes people think China and Russia would care all that much about a little fallout?
Sure, China won't like their fishing getting tainted but thats about it on their end. Russia has even less at stake, other than another commie love child going under.
Personally I hope someone sends assassins to kill this idiot. Aside from giving us something to laugh at he serves no positive purpose on the world.
If we can turn the army against him, there will be a civil war. If we start a civil war Kim Jong Un will be too preoccupied to attack the West.If the next leader is still unstable, it will be relatively simple to jump in and mop up the scraps.
I think because the South still shares a feeling of kinship with the North. Despite everything that has happened, they are the same race of people, and have 2000 years of shared history.
Really I think it is what has made the whole thing so tragic (not that war isn't in all cases - but reading about the Korean War really makes you angry with the sense of injustice involved).
The South Koreans I know hate North Korea with a passion, and they've told me that is the general feeling in the south. One of the women told me that she'd rather marry a Japanese than a North Korean, which says a lot about her feelings, anyway, since Japanese at the time were hated there.
Absolute nonsense. I lived in the country for 3 years, take regular trips there for my business in the country, my fiancé is Korean and I constantly talk to friends and family in the country - not once have I heard that attitude expressed. On the whole their feelings are ones of hatred towards the administration, army leaders and Kim Jong Un, but an overwhelming sense of pity for the actual people of the North themselves.
If this was not the case then there would not be the large number outreach and re-patriation projects for people from the North, which always seem to get massive popular support.
Experiment 626 wrote: I have a feeling that China let their barking dog off it's leash at first to distract the rest of the developed world from the spying scandals they've recently been caught red-handed in.
Then of corse, they lose total control of their yappy little pooch and now have to distance themselves as much as possible... The quieter they stay on the NK issue, the more likely it is that the US/SK and everyone else ignore their initial potential involvement.
And I doubt NK will be 'allowed' to launch a nuke... It's not like China or Russia would even entertain the idea of having potential fallout so near their own borders, let alone being remarked/remembered as "the crazy dude who tried to begin a nuclear armageddon's BFF."
Or they do what they have always done. They play the long game.
After Operation Geronimo they bought the remains of the helicopter the SEALS used from Pakistan so they could examine US stealth technology. If North Korea escalates the Chinese have a good seat to watch how the US conduct war on terrain similar to their home turf. If it happens I wouldn't be too surprised if the North Korean's also get a "donation" from the Chinese for some field testing.
The PRC is unarguably a malevolent, hostile power, but their modus operandi is constant duplicity, theft, and subversion, not so much overt military grandstanding. They know a conventional war with the US is impossible for both sides, and so are content to sponsor identity theft, fraud, economic subversion, and cyberterrorism. The PRC (which, by the way, isn't China: the legitimate Chinese government still exists, operating out of Taiwan under US protection; the illegitimate PRC just happens to hold the mainland) has also come out against NK already; their involvement is unlikely, and would probably be nothing but their own attack on NK to try and seize more land or make a grand display of "friendship" with the US, under some impression that if they just smile and pretend to play nice no one will notice their constant hostile actions.
Russia might, since their international policy these days is thumbing their nose at the US for the sake of appearance, while the old conflicts have largely been invalidated. It's unlikely they'd want to stick their noses into this particular sittuation, however.
Is there anything in NK worth having for the Chinese? Seems like assimilating a starved and brainwashed population would be far more trouble than its worth.
They'd most likely just lock down their border and force the South to absorb the North. That will be a nasty job for whoever takes it on and will keep attention away from them.
Its not in China's interest to take over the North from what I can see. Its a distraction they want to prolong as long as possible.
Right. It's quite unlikely they'd get involved at all beyond border security. If they did, they'd be against NK, however. They're far too comfortable, objectively because of US actions, to violently act against NATO forces.
I don't think they'd be overly concerned about sharing a border with a united korea either, as it would only mean more, easier trade, which is their lifeblood these days. It would also mean they wouldn't be heavily subsidizing NK anymore.
ExNoctemNacimur wrote: Y'know, I'm not sure if the Chinese would actually do that. They're not that stupid.
Before the Argentinian conflict in the early 80's the British were worried about the deployment of Exocet missles against their ships. The French, British allies who sold the missle system to the Argentinians before the conflict. The French warned the British that Argentina was attempting to acquire more through Peru. In spite of this warning, and their status as allies, the French helped the Argentinians train on the use of the missles that were later deployed and caused irreparable damage and disabled the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Sheffield, struck the 15,000 ton merchant ship Atlantic Conveyor (it sank while being towed 3 days later from the damage) and also caused damage to the destroyer HMS Glamorgan.
All from an ally with no direct stake in the conflict, no border dispute and no long term machinations against the UK. Now, compare that to China which has been carrying out cyber attacks, spying and buying US military tech.
I guess they're thinking that having Kaesong closed for a few months before they declare that they'd like to heal their ties with the South and reopening it is seen as a permissible loss. Give it a year and the status quo will be resumed, with the north repairing their ties with the South by merely returning to the status quo to aclaim. "Look we signed a temporary peace treaty and reopened our phone line. Uh... please give us money and lay off some of the sanctions again?". Iterating this process only strengthens the public opinion of the North Korea people to the party, whilst having no real negative effects towards the world's view of the DPRK as it can't sink any lower. Well at least's that's what the part probably think.
I'd rather see the government step down. Over time a leader should give in to the world's opinion and take the China route of instilling small amounts of change over time. The north has few resources, thus it can't exist without international aid. The extremist government holds the people in line where a democratic one couldn't if it were to remain isolated. If the DPRK were to open itself to the outside world it would have to be un-totalitarian for it to receive aid. For it to allow for enough international involvement to get into this situation it would have to not be led by so conservative a government.
War would be pointless. It would only result in the South inheriting a wasteland. For the South not to be negatively effected the transition would probably be required to be a slow integration.
It is always a temptation to an armed and agile nation
To call upon a neighbour and to say: --
"We invaded you last night--we are quite prepared to fight,
Unless you pay us cash to go away."
And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you've only to pay 'em the Dane-geld
And then you'll get rid of the Dane!
It is always a temptation for a rich and lazy nation,
To puff and look important and to say: --
"Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away."
And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say: --
"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that pays it is lost!"
He's spot on too when you apply that poem to North Korea, they've thrown tantrums before and been paid off in food aid etc. and they keep repeating the same tactic over and over hoping for the same results.
Nevelon wrote: Shouldn't we be getting nuked around now?
The original threat on the 3rd was, I believe, that hostilities would break out in 1-2 days. Then it was by April 10th. So yes, you are correct North Korea's second deadline seems to be passing without incident.
Of course they have matches. Matches embody the Socialist Revolutionary principles on which the DPRK was founded. Lighter however are banned, decadent Western devices!
Nevelon wrote: Shouldn't we be getting nuked around now?
Agreed I thought NY and Austin were supposed to be radioactive now, and the imperialist armies of the US and South Korea already destroyed. What gives Julio?
Not slow - just Soviet built, meaning it comes with a "Only Good Until You Try To Actually Fire It" expiration date.
before you go mocking the soviets for their technological inferiority given how poorly consumer products worked, i'd like to remind you that the only one of two times the americans beat the soviets in the space race was to the moon, flybys of other planets, and the first to successfully land on mars. The bane of assured american military conquest is the AK-47 and its thousands of derivatives... Time and again, a MiG could be counted on to outperform american pieces of aeronautical engineering.... This all from a nation who's favorite pastime is remaining sober for all of 5 minutes after waking up, and guzzling "little water" like it's real water.
Yeah, Soviet made stuff usually worked pretty well. Its the tons of cheap knockoffs made in other countries(or made by the Russians for export) that tended to perform poorly.
It never worked pretty and may not have been the best it could have been but it got the job done.
The AK isn't an accurate weapon but it is low maintainance. Superior to the M-16 in many vital ways, at least earlier on. We have learned and begun making improved rifles that combine the best of the M-16 and the AK.
Remeber the AK was designed by a Sarg with real batle field experiance.
He just happen to be Russian.
Om Topic: A freind of mine spend a year on the DMZ and he is mor worried about the south and Japan than us.
If NK were to use a nuke, I think we might use Nukes, but I think we are more likly to put a JDAM in his gamming room.
Grey Templar wrote: Yeah, Soviet made stuff usually worked pretty well. Its the tons of cheap knockoffs made in other countries(or made by the Russians for export) that tended to perform poorly.
It never worked pretty and may not have been the best it could have been but it got the job done.
The AK isn't an accurate weapon but it is low maintainance. Superior to the M-16 in many vital ways, at least earlier on. We have learned and begun making improved rifles that combine the best of the M-16 and the AK.
generally speaking, the soviet response to american sophistication of technology was "the fewer gizmodos you put in, the less can go wrong with it". It's why the AK47 will probably continue to be a problem for the next 100 years, and why we can expect, even with "ancient" weapons in the hands of the norkeys, they would pose a threat if they managed to deploy anywhere outside of their peninsula.
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Anpu42 wrote: Remeber the AK was designed by a Sarg with real batle field experiance.
He just happen to be Russian.
welllllllllll
to be snotty, the guy was actually from a tank unit and wouldn't know the trigger from the stock if it weren't for the fact that he was hospitalised and had time to sit there and ruminate on how to improve the lot of the compatriots that were being reduced to pink vapor outside the tank.....
Well, more threat than their Nuclear weapons will likely pose. Of course we have had the better part of a century to learn how to fight soviet designed weapons and them being way behind isn't in their favor.
The AK was also heavily based on the StG44 so its not like it was a miracle built from scratch. Both sides benifited from looting German technology.
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poda_t wrote: It's why the AK47 will probably continue to be a problem for the next 100 years, a
Only 100?
I'll be that sucker will still be a viable weapon much longer than that.
Grey Templar wrote: Well, more threat than their Nuclear weapons will likely pose. Of course we have had the better part of a century to learn how to fight soviet designed weapons and them being way behind isn't in their favor.
The AK was also heavily based on the StG44 so its not like it was a miracle built from scratch. Both sides benifited from looting German technology.
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poda_t wrote: It's why the AK47 will probably continue to be a problem for the next 100 years, a
Only 100?
I'll be that sucker will still be a viable weapon much longer than that.
well, either we nuke ourselves out, in which case, PROBLEM SOOOOOOLVED! or some other wonder weapon comes along, or. you know, aliens. because. Aliens.
And I agree, the m-60 is a facelifted '42, and german tech was essential for the manhattan project as well as the american space program.
I don't think it's reasonable to expect some sort of deployment WRT to north korea. Deploying additional troops to protect SK will problaby piss NK off and cause the hammer to drop, but waiting around may only make NK think that SK is an easy target, ripe for the taking, making US deployment damn dear difficult. Despite being such an easy target with outdated tech, why hasn't anyone disposed of NK? Because they present a legitimate military threat. And there's a reason why Saddam had seven shades of hell bombed out of his ass despite a complete lack of evidence of the kind of WMDs that one should be legitimately concerned about, yet it's only finger-wagging when it comes to Ahmadinejad and the Kims.
Well, if we do bomb them away I say we don't step in and clean up the mess. Let them rebuild themselves, or let China do it. Their pet dog, their mess.
Grey Templar wrote: Well, if we do bomb them away I say we don't step in and clean up the mess. Let them rebuild themselves, or let China do it. Their pet dog, their mess.
that's great, but the solutions are seldom that simple. China might run a temper, and just happen to lose track of some artillery pieces that inevitably end up firing out of NK into japan. Then there'd be retaliatory strikes against SK and Japan. If they hold the territory by the time the bombs fly, then it's going to be civilian "criminal" executions to retaliate against the US, and a possible redistribution of the population so that the US bombs the people they are supposedly protecting.
Carpet bombing is a hell of a lot of fun, it's pretty to watch at night, but, my god, is it as far as you can get from a desired solution.
poda_t wrote: I don't think it's reasonable to expect some sort of deployment WRT to north korea. Deploying additional troops to protect SK will problaby piss NK off and cause the hammer to drop, but waiting around may only make NK think that SK is an easy target, ripe for the taking, making US deployment damn dear difficult. Despite being such an easy target with outdated tech, why hasn't anyone disposed of NK? Because they present a legitimate military threat. And there's a reason why Saddam had seven shades of hell bombed out of his ass despite a complete lack of evidence of the kind of WMDs that one should be legitimately concerned about, yet it's only finger-wagging when it comes to Ahmadinejad and the Kims.
The "legitimate military threat" is not to our military, but rather rooted in effectively holding a gun to the head of civilian populations (NK hardened artillery positions threatening Seoul) or to crucial trade infrastructure (Iran maintaining the capacity to mine the Persian Gulf).
that's great, but the solutions are seldom that simple. China might run a temper, and just happen to lose track of some artillery pieces that inevitably end up firing out of NK into japan.
gak!
Oh well sorry Tokyo, Paris, Singapore and Seattle, my arm just slipped a little, and I didn't know I pressed the button to launch 4 nuclear weapons! I'm terribly sorry, it won't happen again!
Grey Templar wrote: Well, if we do bomb them away I say we don't step in and clean up the mess. Let them rebuild themselves, or let China do it. Their pet dog, their mess.
that's great, but the solutions are seldom that simple. China might run a temper, and just happen to lose track of some artillery pieces that inevitably end up firing out of NK into japan. Then there'd be retaliatory strikes against SK and Japan. If they hold the territory by the time the bombs fly, then it's going to be civilian "criminal" executions to retaliate against the US, and a possible redistribution of the population so that the US bombs the people they are supposedly protecting.
Carpet bombing is a hell of a lot of fun, it's pretty to watch at night, but, my god, is it as far as you can get from a desired solution.
So what you're really saying is MaCarthur was right...
Grey Templar wrote: Well, if we do bomb them away I say we don't step in and clean up the mess. Let them rebuild themselves, or let China do it. Their pet dog, their mess.
that's great, but the solutions are seldom that simple. China might run a temper, and just happen to lose track of some artillery pieces that inevitably end up firing out of NK into japan.
If China has artillery that can fire several hundred miles, we're all in trouble.
Well, this has been an interesting thread to read through.
All in all, this is one of those situations, I reckon, where everything is more or less dependent on what happens next, so to speak.
After all, we all know NK's about as impoverished as it gets, and is most likely sabre-rattling; however, US and SK forces have responded with a similar rattle of their own, very expensive and artisan-quality blade which has a longer reach and cuts better. At the moment, it seems like two kids in the playground, squaring up, pointing fingers and calling names, threatening to "get my big brother/pet dog who's a doberman on you", but not quiiiiite pushing over into an actual fistfight yet because neither kid has quite reached the stage where the risks, in their minds, are outweighed by seeing that smug Imperialist/crazed Commie mother hubbard on his arse. Whether or not one kid's going to go too far and insult the other's mum in the next week or so is hard to say.
So in short, my two cents is a little bit meaningless, really, but even so.
Grey Templar wrote: Well, if we do bomb them away I say we don't step in and clean up the mess. Let them rebuild themselves, or let China do it. Their pet dog, their mess.
that's great, but the solutions are seldom that simple. China might run a temper, and just happen to lose track of some artillery pieces that inevitably end up firing out of NK into japan.
If China has artillery that can fire several hundred miles, we're all in trouble.
China will not suport North Korea this time around because;
a) It's very bad for buisness
b) Even they are getting fed-up with "Little Fatty's" antics which could very well destabilise the entire region and put even more US military presence in the region.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if NK continues to act like a spoiled little brat, China will 'turn off' the oil flow like they did in 2003.
All in all, this is one of those situations, I reckon, where everything is more or less dependent on what happens next, so to speak.
After all, we all know NK's about as impoverished as it gets, and is most likely sabre-rattling; however, US and SK forces have responded with a similar rattle of their own, very expensive and artisan-quality blade which has a longer reach and cuts better. At the moment, it seems like two kids in the playground, squaring up, pointing fingers and calling names, threatening to "get my big brother/pet dog who's a doberman on you", but not quiiiiite pushing over into an actual fistfight yet because neither kid has quite reached the stage where the risks, in their minds, are outweighed by seeing that smug Imperialist/crazed Commie mother hubbard on his arse. Whether or not one kid's going to go too far and insult the other's mum in the next week or so is hard to say.
So in short, my two cents is a little bit meaningless, really, but even so.
If the fat child decides to throw his shovel at the other kid, that kid's mon definitely going to crush its sandcastle.
Grey Templar wrote: Well, if we do bomb them away I say we don't step in and clean up the mess. Let them rebuild themselves, or let China do it. Their pet dog, their mess.
that's great, but the solutions are seldom that simple. China might run a temper, and just happen to lose track of some artillery pieces that inevitably end up firing out of NK into japan.
If China has artillery that can fire several hundred miles, we're all in trouble.
last i recall, missile batteries count as artillery.
All in all, this is one of those situations, I reckon, where everything is more or less dependent on what happens next, so to speak.
After all, we all know NK's about as impoverished as it gets, and is most likely sabre-rattling; however, US and SK forces have responded with a similar rattle of their own, very expensive and artisan-quality blade which has a longer reach and cuts better. At the moment, it seems like two kids in the playground, squaring up, pointing fingers and calling names, threatening to "get my big brother/pet dog who's a doberman on you", but not quiiiiite pushing over into an actual fistfight yet because neither kid has quite reached the stage where the risks, in their minds, are outweighed by seeing that smug Imperialist/crazed Commie mother hubbard on his arse. Whether or not one kid's going to go too far and insult the other's mum in the next week or so is hard to say.
So in short, my two cents is a little bit meaningless, really, but even so.
If the fat child decides to throw his shovel at the other kid, that kid's mon definitely going to crush its sandcastle.
Depends if the fat kid thinks he can stand up to a beating from said bigger kid. Sure, we know what the result will be, but he doesn't necessarily know that.
The results of a classified Defense Intelligence Agency report indicate that “North Korea now has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles.”
That was the bombshell out of a House Armed Services Committee hearing Thursday.
It came when Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) of Colorado began quoting from what he said was an unclassified version of the DIA report, which has not yet been made public.
North Korea states 'nuclear war is unavoidable' as it declares first target will be Japan
NORTH KOREA has warned Japan that Tokyo would be the first target in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, as it increased threats of an attack.
n a commentary carried by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the communist country lashed out at Tokyo's standing orders to destroy any missile heading toward Japan, threatening such actions will result in a nuclear attack against the island nation.
If Japan executes its threat to shoot down any North Korean missile, such a “provocative” intervention would see Tokyo — an enormous conurbation of 30 million people — “consumed in nuclear flames”, KCNA warned.
“Japan is always in the cross-hairs of our revolutionary army and if Japan makes a slightest move, the spark of war will touch Japan first,” the report added.
Necros wrote: so.. are they saying.. "If you destroy our missiles, we'll nuke you with a missile that you're not allowed to destroy too?"
You have to respect that. Its like saying I'm going to throw a punch at you, but if you block it, I'm going to throw another punch at you for declaring war by block the punch I was trying to hit you with.
Or its like saying Japan declares war on the US and will send planes from the Akagi because it sent planes from the Yorktown to sink Akagi after the Akagi sent planes to sink the Yorktown. Er...what???
EDIT: I just realized, its all part of their fiendish master plan to confuse our running capitalist dog minds such much we just start punching ourselves in the face. Kim, oh you clever girl!
Necros wrote: so.. are they saying.. "If you destroy our missiles, we'll nuke you with a missile that you're not allowed to destroy too?"
You have to respect that. Its like saying I'm going to throw a punch at you, but if you block it, I'm going to throw another punch at you for declaring war by block the punch I was trying to hit you with.
Or its like saying Japan declares war on the US and will send planes from the Akagi because it sent planes from the Yorktown to sink Akagi after the Akagi sent planes to sink the Yorktown. Er...what???
Hey, it's good Orkish logic. Fine, you shot down one missile, but if we keep shooting at you, eventually one will get through!
Necros wrote: so.. are they saying.. "If you destroy our missiles, we'll nuke you with a missile that you're not allowed to destroy too?"
You have to respect that. Its like saying I'm going to throw a punch at you, but if you block it, I'm going to throw another punch at you for declaring war by block the punch I was trying to hit you with.
Or its like saying Japan declares war on the US and will send planes from the Akagi because it sent planes from the Yorktown to sink Akagi after the Akagi sent planes to sink the Yorktown. Er...what???
Hey, it's good Orkish logic. Fine, you shot down one missile, but if we keep shooting at you, eventually one will get through!
That plan kind of falls apart when you don't have all that many missiles though.
Necros wrote: so.. are they saying.. "If you destroy our missiles, we'll nuke you with a missile that you're not allowed to destroy too?"
You have to respect that. Its like saying I'm going to throw a punch at you, but if you block it, I'm going to throw another punch at you for declaring war by block the punch I was trying to hit you with.
Or its like saying Japan declares war on the US and will send planes from the Akagi because it sent planes from the Yorktown to sink Akagi after the Akagi sent planes to sink the Yorktown. Er...what???
Hey, it's good Orkish logic. Fine, you shot down one missile, but if we keep shooting at you, eventually one will get through!
That plan kind of falls apart when you don't have all that many missiles though.
Yeaaaaaaah. "Clap your hands if you believe" only works in fiction, too, which may hamper the missile launches even further.
ing Sea King's we still try to rescure people with for some damned reason!
