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Randall Turner wrote: Well, you reach the "overkill" point as soon as you have a reasonable chance of using the Chronotek. Not when you're guaranteed to kill the transport. Anything past the point of having a guaranteed reroll opportunity you're losing the benefit of bunching the lanceteks up with the Chronotek. Aaaand, of course, your figures for hit/pen/damage aren't taking into account the chrono rerolls.

You should be able to see from the maths I did that there will be a 0.44 chance that you get to use the chrono reroll on the damage table so with only 2 Lances you are unlikley to make use of it. The proper maths for the number of lances which will make most efficient use of a Chronometron is pretty long winded but trust me it is 4, especially for AVs higher than 11. Feel free to disagree but please use maths if you do!

I just asked my friend who is a scientist and is very savvy in Math and 40k. He agrees.

4 is the magic number, but... This is a huge but...

Having 4 in one unit doesn't work in practice when you have to consider:

- That you are putting too many eggs in one basket and cannot spread fire across other targets.

- That if your Ark blows up, you could lose the entire unit.

- That you are a much bigger threat than several smaller units.

Necrons, more than any other army, are about threat management. We can spam more big threats than most other armies and we have the resilience to back it up.

Synergy is also key and while we have things in our lists that grant re-rolls to hit (Stalkers), the amount of shots hitting will generally mean we squeeze dmg through... or so he said.

Personally, would I put a Chronotek in with 4 Lanceteks?
Yes I would, if I took units of Lanceteks. After seeing them in practice, I certainly wouldn't take them.

Lanceteks are better in two ofs inside small units of warriors in Ghost Arks for three reasons:

- They are scoring.

- Warriors on foot with 2 Lanceteks are too fragile to use.

- They are mobile Gunboats that can pop a transport and then chew through the insides.

I've also heard them described as better DE Raiders, but I'm not sure on that one as there is a might difference in points.

Moosatronic Warrior wrote:

Randall Turner wrote: Well, you reach the "overkill" point as soon as you have a reasonable chance of using the Chronotek. Not when you're guaranteed to kill the transport. Anything past the point of having a guaranteed reroll opportunity you're losing the benefit of bunching the lanceteks up with the Chronotek. Aaaand, of course, your figures for hit/pen/damage aren't taking into account the chrono rerolls.

You should be able to see from the maths I did that there will be a 0.44 chance that you get to use the chrono reroll on the damage table so with only 2 Lances you are unlikley to make use of it. The proper maths for the number of lances which will make most efficient use of a Chronometron is pretty long winded but trust me it is 4, especially for AVs higher than 11. Feel free to disagree but please use maths if you do!

LOL dude, you know I'm an engineer, right? My calculator works good. And no offense, Puscifer, but your "scientist" friend is wrong, show him this post after you read it.

First of all, chrono rerolls in general - we benefit the most from rerolls where we've missed a high-probability roll. The best reroll we can make is a missed 2+ (ie, a "1") because we've a near unity chance to improve on a reroll (5/6).

Then, rolling on the damage chart - for some reason you believe this is the best use of the chrono. It's not. Illustrating with your original AV12 target scenario, a typical lancetek attack is:
3+ to hit
[ignore cover, chrono can't affect that, might not have one]
4 to glance, 5+ to pen
spectrum of damage effects, 5+ destroys on penetration

Obviously from the above, the best reroll we can make is the to-hit roll. It gives us a 2/3 chance of improving our original roll. The next two, penetration and damage, are about the same in that there's a more-or-less 50% chance of "success" on a reroll, depending on how we define "success".

Now - Moosatronic, the odds of success for a given shot using a chrono are much higher than your original post, ie...

Randall Turner wrote:

Moosatronic Warrior wrote:More than 2 lances are not overkill against AV11. 2 Lances gives 1.3 hits, 0.66 pens, 0.22 wrecked/explode, half that if theres a cover save.

Well, you reach the "overkill" point as soon as you have a reasonable chance of using the Chronotek. Not when you're guaranteed to kill the transport. Anything past the point of having a guaranteed reroll opportunity you're losing the benefit of bunching the lanceteks up with the Chronotek. Aaaand, of course, your figures for hit/pen/damage aren't taking into account the chrono rerolls.

You got "1.3 hits" by multiplying 2 x 2/3, right? What if you reroll a miss? Doh! Odds for two, one and zero hits are 4/9, 4/9 and 1/9. So 5/9 of the time you'll have at least one "miss" to reroll, and you'll have a 2/3 chance to make that reroll. Soo, your average number of hits isn't your 1.333, it's actually 1.70 - with a 4/9 chance the chrono reroll wasn't used at all.

Breaking down the odds further get more interesting b/c down the line you have to make decisions on when it's desireable to make a reroll - for instance, do you reroll a glance? But I've already done it and it's tangential, just read this thread I posted a while ago:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/447544.page

best maths post:


For our purposes though, the "overkill" point isn't determined by how many lances it takes to blow up a transport. (And this is where your scientist friend went wrong, Pulsifer.) The "overkill" is the point past which we've a reasonable chance of having used the chronotek. Do you guys not get this? It's based on the fact that the only benefit from "clumping" lances is the chrono reroll. So, how likely are we not to use the reroll? This happens in two circumstances - first, we kill the transport. Second, we make every hit roll, but miss every cover roll. So, to detemine the breakpoint we have to know how often the target gets a cover save.

If it's 100% of the time, the odds of wasting the chrono with two lances is 4/9 * 1/4, or 1/9 of the time. (4/9 chance both lances hit, 1/4 chance target makes both 4+ cover saves.) Obviously the target won't get a cover save 100% of the time, and obviously if the chance for one unassissted lance to destroy the target is ALSO 1/9 (see .1111 i spoiler above), it's better to break out the third and fourth lances and let them shoot separately.

So, yes - the sweet spot is two.

Edit: I was sipping coffee and thinking, you could make an argument for three. Four is right out, but three, maybe. Because:
1) The to-hit reroll is our best value. With two, there's a 5/9 chance we'll get to reroll a to-hit. The rest of the time we'll have to be re-rolling a penetration or damage roll, which isn't as powerful. With three, there's a 19/27 chance we'll get a to-hit re-roll, ie, 70% vs. 56%.
2) It may be that we just need to knock out the searchlight. In that case, we won't need to re-roll "weapon destroyed" results, it's as good as an "exploded" result for our purposes. So there's more chance the chrono re-roll will go unused.
3) Likewise, it might be Zandrekh is giving the unit "tank hunter". In that case, we'll only need to re-roll penetrations 1/3 of the time, instead of 1/2 - so again, there's more chance the chrono re-roll will go unused.
4) Well, more is just "cool".

Randall, I disagree with your assessment that re-rolling the penetration roll isn't as powerful (at least all the time). Re-rolling a 1 or 2 on the Pen can vary from just as pertinent as re-rolling the hit (aginst GK and Necrons) to almost as pertinent (particularly if it's your second 1 or 2, or you really really need to at least blast that primary weapon off, if not out right kill the target).

Point cost aside I think the sweet spot for vehicle hunting Royal Court is the following:\

3 X Lancetek
1 X Harptek
1 X Chronotek

And if you wanna get real cute a Lord w/res orb and sempermental weave.

Expensive, but deadly and surprisingly resilient (the chrono and sw/ro, if taken, help out tremendously here as well).

It's tremendously more versatile firepower (AV 10 to 14), and the Chrono can swing in and help anything that's extremely needed. Say you have a group of Termies closing in, re-rolling the lance rolls is an option but re-rolling the Tremor scatter could be the difference of life and death (also the Harp Tek allows the option of some additional potentially life saving wargear).

That being said, great post. Chronos are really one of the most powerful items we can add to our lists, particularly when combined with bullet soaking HQs like Imo or Zandrhek.

Randall Turner wrote:[
<other stuff>

Holy Crap, a lancetek + chrono shot might be more effective than two lance shots even disregarding other advantages! Has nobody else taken a close look at this? I need to sit down this weekend and make out a full table for a range of AV targets and intermediate (glance, immobilize etc) results, but it's not just better than twin-linked, it's a LOT better than twin-linked.

<other stuff>

Edit: I was sipping coffee and thinking, you could make an argument for three. Four is right out, but three, maybe. Because:
1) The to-hit reroll is our best value. With two, there's a 5/9 chance we'll get to reroll a to-hit. The rest of the time we'll have to be re-rolling a penetration or damage roll, which isn't as powerful. With three, there's a 19/27 chance we'll get a to-hit re-roll, ie, 70% vs. 56%.

Thanks Randall. Now I can mathematically say that I'm being efficient when using the chrono to reroll the hit (as opposed to cursing the dice gods!!)

ShadarLogoth wrote:<other stuff>

Point cost aside I think the sweet spot for vehicle hunting Royal Court is the following:\

3 X Lancetek
1 X Harptek
1 X Chronotek

And if you wanna get real cute a Lord w/res orb and sempermental weave.

Expensive, but deadly and surprisingly resilient (the chrono and sw/ro, if taken, help out tremendously here as well).

Ummm..no warscythe? Just in case you get really close or get tank shocked or something? Also, as we are ignoring points cost - why not a StormTek? Haywire is lots of fun!

ShadarLogoth wrote:Randall, I disagree with your assessment that re-rolling the penetration roll isn't as powerful (at least all the time). Re-rolling a 1 or 2 on the Pen can vary from just as pertinent as re-rolling the hit (aginst GK and Necrons) to almost as pertinent (particularly if it's your second 1 or 2, or you really really need to at least blast that primary weapon off, if not out right kill the target).

Saying the to-hit reroll is more "powerful" is purely a math thing. It just means that the potential for success is high, ie, you only need a 3+. Of course that's exactly the same as with a pen roll against AV10. But we were talking about an AV11 target. Nothing metaphysical about it, it was just our highest odds reroll in the example set. (And it'll usually be the highest odds reroll for an S8 AP2 weapon.)

Randall Turner wrote:

ShadarLogoth wrote:Randall, I disagree with your assessment that re-rolling the penetration roll isn't as powerful (at least all the time). Re-rolling a 1 or 2 on the Pen can vary from just as pertinent as re-rolling the hit (aginst GK and Necrons) to almost as pertinent (particularly if it's your second 1 or 2, or you really really need to at least blast that primary weapon off, if not out right kill the target).

Saying the to-hit reroll is more "powerful" is purely a math thing. It just means that the potential for success is high, ie, you only need a 3+. Of course that's exactly the same as with a pen roll against AV10. But we were talking about an AV11 target. Nothing metaphysical about it, it was just our highest odds reroll in the example set. (And it'll usually be the highest odds reroll for an S8 AP2 weapon.)

Right on heheh, that's what I meant as well . The point I was trying to make was if the roll you really want on the Pen chart is a 3+, then the chronos viability is equal in this case to the 3+ to-hit roll. But, admittedly, this is more situational.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ummm..no warscythe? Just in case you get really close or get tank shocked or something? Also, as we are ignoring points cost - why not a StormTek? Haywire is lots of fun!

Heh true, although only 5 Crypteks so sadly no room for the Stormtek. This thought exercise has inspired me to re-visit this unit. I'll post a separate thread some time tonight, but I'm thinking with the right amount of point investment you can turn a Glass Cannon into a Titanium Cannon for the right kind of list (not Imo, but 2 SP, and provided you were going to go Warrior Blob and have some available empty GAs to begin with).

I'm surprised the StormTek never comes up in anti-vehicle discussions...

Surely an Assault 4 Haywire staff is more reliable than a single S8 shot? Admittedly the range is an issue.

Sometimes I'll stick a stormtek and a veiltek in a squad of s&b lychguard with Zahndrek. Useful to be able to open the vehicle before I assault it.

Praxiss wrote:I'm surprised the StormTek never comes up in anti-vehicle discussions...

Surely an Assault 4 Haywire staff is more reliable than a single S8 shot? Admittedly the range is an issue.

I never thought of that.

What's the range on them? (At work atm, no codex to hand).

12" - hence the issue (the only issue as far as i can see). If they were longer range i would take these instead of lanceteks (a fully decked out StormTek is also 20 points cheaper than decked out DestrucTek)

Randall Turner wrote:

ShadarLogoth wrote:Randall, I disagree with your assessment that re-rolling the penetration roll isn't as powerful (at least all the time). Re-rolling a 1 or 2 on the Pen can vary from just as pertinent as re-rolling the hit (aginst GK and Necrons) to almost as pertinent (particularly if it's your second 1 or 2, or you really really need to at least blast that primary weapon off, if not out right kill the target).

Saying the to-hit reroll is more "powerful" is purely a math thing. It just means that the potential for success is high, ie, you only need a 3+. Of course that's exactly the same as with a pen roll against AV10. But we were talking about an AV11 target. Nothing metaphysical about it, it was just our highest odds reroll in the example set. (And it'll usually be the highest odds reroll for an S8 AP2 weapon.)

Im sorry Mr Turner I dont want to be too confrontational but you have got this completeley wrong and I had to facepalm when reading you post near the top of this page.

I think your problem is that your looking for the best chance for your chronometron reroll to be a positive result so obviously you want to be rerolling a 2+ ideally. This is NOT how to make most efficient use of the Chrono.

As I said before the proper maths for the lance court is very long winded so im not going to post it here. However there is an easy way to think about it that may help you:

If you use your chronometron to reroll the to hit roll you have wasted 5 points. This is because an extra lance would have given you the same effect for 5 points cheaper.

If you reroll a penetration roll your Chronometron is effectivly an Eldritch Lance that hit automatically.

If you reroll the damage table roll your Chronometron is effectivly an Eldritch Lance that hit and penetrated automatically

A weapon that auto hits and auto pens a tank for 40pts is really good and the more lances you have the better the chance there is of getting as far as the pen roll.

Thanks Randall. Now I can mathematically say that I'm being efficient when using the chrono to reroll the hit (as opposed to cursing the dice gods!!)

Sorry but thats not the case!

The only times I dont save the reroll as late as possible is against models with a T value or against something like a flat out DE transport.
For models with a T value you hit on 3+ and wound on 2+ (usually) rerolling the to-hit rolls increases your chances to hit by 33%, rerolling the to-wound roll increases your chance to wound by 16%. So it the crono is more efficient when used for the to-hit.

For DE transports open topped and flat out means that you only need a 3+ on the damage table to wreck the raider/venom and the 4+ cover save means you might want to reroll the pen roll to force more saves. I havent done the maths on that but it "feels" like the best way to play it.

4 is the magic number, but... This is a huge but...

Having 4 in one unit doesn't work in practice when you have to consider: -it has worked very well in practice in dozens of games for me!

- That you are putting too many eggs in one basket and cannot spread fire across other targets. -spreading fire will rarely be beneficial if you look at the maths.

- That if your Ark blows up, you could lose the entire unit. -If the ark explodes you will on average loose 0.5 Crpteks (thats without factoring in a rerolled save) so not reaaly an issue.

- That you are a much bigger threat than several smaller units.

Necrons, more than any other army, are about threat management. We can spam more big threats than most other armies and we have the resilience to back it up.

Synergy is also key and while we have things in our lists that grant re-rolls to hit (Stalkers), the amount of shots hitting will generally mean we squeeze dmg through... or so he said.

Personally, would I put a Chronotek in with 4 Lanceteks?
Yes I would, if I took units of Lanceteks. After seeing them in practice, I certainly wouldn't take them. -I find them amazing in practice

Lanceteks are better in two ofs inside small units of warriors in Ghost Arks for three reasons:

- They are scoring.

- Warriors on foot with 2 Lanceteks are too fragile to use. -They are roughly equal to 7 space marines on foot so i disagree

- They are mobile Gunboats that can pop a transport and then chew through the insides.

Well the current maths war was mostly over how many Lances to put with a Chronometron when not in a warrior squad.
I do disagree with some of your point here though (counter arguments in bold).

Most importantly I think deciding between lances spread out in warriors or together in a court mostly comes down to what else is in your list. If you need more scoring units thats a big plus for warriors but if you need anti tank after taking lots of immortals the court is the way to go;

The warriors are paying 67pts per lance (assuming 2 per squad without SP) or 125 with an ark.
The 5 man Lance chrono court costs 36pts per lance (counting Chrono as another lance even though it is much better) or 59 with an ark.

Having said all this though I am fairly sure that both types of unit are better off without an Ark! They are MEQs who will be most likely opperating at range from inside terrain under cover of Solar Pulses- 115 pts is too much to spend unless its an AV13 spam list or you lack a sufficient number of other threatening units.

I can see the math, but give me:

A) A better AT unit that isn't a HS choice or a Stalker.

B) A better way to protect a Lancetek unit or Warrior Tek Unit that isn't a Ghost Ark.

The other thing about spreading your lanceteks around into warrior units is it gives more survivability to your scoring troops. Let's say they get blown out of their GA and shot down to a man. Without the lanceteks, that unit is gone and finished. With them, there is still a chance the lanceteks will stand back up, and since they are part of that unit, they still score. It has made the difference between winning and losing a game for me.

Moosatronic Warrior wrote:Im sorry Mr Turner I dont want to be too confrontational but you have got this completeley wrong and I had to facepalm when reading you post near the top of this page.

I think your problem is that your looking for the best chance for your chronometron reroll to be a positive result so obviously you want to be rerolling a 2+ ideally. This is NOT how to make most efficient use of the Chrono.

As I said before the proper maths for the lance court is very long winded so im not going to post it here. However there is an easy way to think about it that may help you:

If you use your chronometron to reroll the to hit roll you have wasted 5 points. This is because an extra lance would have given you the same effect for 5 points cheaper.

If you reroll a penetration roll your Chronometron is effectivly an Eldritch Lance that hit automatically.

If you reroll the damage table roll your Chronometron is effectivly an Eldritch Lance that hit and penetrated automatically

A weapon that auto hits and auto pens a tank for 40pts is really good and the more lances you have the better the chance there is of getting as far as the pen roll.

Don't worry about the confrontational thing, we get on each other's nerves 'cause it's the internet and we can't see how awesome we each are.

The only real maths that I posted - 11% hit/pen/destroyed naked lance, 24% hit/pen/destroyed chrono-assisted lance - are correct, Moose. They're predicated on the assumption you *will* reroll a miss or non-pen. Of course if you hit and penetrate without using the Chrono, absolutely - we're in a better situation. But nobobdy's arguing that's not the case.

It sounds like you might be saying that, with a multiple lance unit, you'd want to let misses go and save your re-rolls for pen and damage for those lances that do hit. If that's the case calculating the delta efficiency is pretty simple, tell me what your "rule" is (number of lances, re-roll guidelines) and I'll happily differentiate the odds of target destruction for you. (Ie, difference between your reroll guidelines and the "default" of rerolling the to-hits if they fail.)

i agree that calculating the odds for chrono scenarios are really hairy, we're ignoring a lot of things and making the notorious "simplifying assumptions". I intentionally ignored opportunity cost of early rerolls, ie, lost opportunity to make later rerolls, b/c it was going to be complex and it "felt" like a saved to-hit would equal a reroll on the next level etc. But proving that mathematically is an entirely different deal, we can do so.

I know this isn't perfectly on topic but it matches the discussion.... here is a site that help calculate some of the basic MathHammer

http://www.mathhammer40k.com

There is something that I've started finding out in my list and the Necron army in general...

Doomsday Arks are needed in games of 2k and upwards.

The Annihilation Barge tends to not do enough at this level.

Puscifer wrote:There is something that I've started finding out in my list and the Necron army in general...

Doomsday Arks are needed in games of 2k and upwards.

The Annihilation Barge tends to not do enough at this level.

No, they're not.

Annihilation barges are fine at 2k.

Puscifer wrote:There is something that I've started finding out in my list and the Necron army in general...

Doomsday Arks are needed in games of 2k and upwards.

The Annihilation Barge tends to not do enough at this level.

Why are you finding that? Is it because at 2k you have enough space for dedicated protection for them?

I would say it entirely depends on how you are building your list. The lists I run now don't even use A. Barges. When you get to 2k and are only spending 270pts in your heavy slot you really are free to go a little crazy with other supporting elements.

Randall Turner wrote:

It sounds like you might be saying that, with a multiple lance unit, you'd want to let misses go and save your re-rolls for pen and damage for those lances that do hit. If that's the case calculating the delta efficiency is pretty simple, tell me what your "rule" is (number of lances, re-roll guidelines) and I'll happily differentiate the odds of target destruction for you. (Ie, difference between your reroll guidelines and the "default" of rerolling the to-hits if they fail.)

Yes, letting misses go and saving the reroll as long as possible is my "rule" (except in the examples I mentioned in my last post).
When rolling to hit its always better to have an extra shot instead of a reroll (two guns is better than one twin-linked gun). So if rerolling to hit was the best use of the Chronometron then it would never be worth taking over an extra lance.


@Puscifer; I cant give you a better AT unit in the codex and I cant give you a better way to protect them. I purchased a Ghost Ark for that very purpose. However having used Lance Courts both in and out of Arks I dont feel like its necessary for them to have one most of the time.

Moosatronic Warrior wrote:

Randall Turner wrote:

It sounds like you might be saying that, with a multiple lance unit, you'd want to let misses go and save your re-rolls for pen and damage for those lances that do hit. If that's the case calculating the delta efficiency is pretty simple, tell me what your "rule" is (number of lances, re-roll guidelines) and I'll happily differentiate the odds of target destruction for you. (Ie, difference between your reroll guidelines and the "default" of rerolling the to-hits if they fail.)

Yes, letting misses go and saving the reroll as long as possible is my "rule" (except in the examples I mentioned in my last post).
When rolling to hit its always better to have an extra shot instead of a reroll (two guns is better than one twin-linked gun). So if rerolling to hit was the best use of the Chronometron then it would never be worth taking over an extra lance.

Wait, no, bolded part, that's just wrong. Rerolling to hit *IS* the best use of the Chronometron, it corrects the "worst case", unluckiest result 2/3 of the time and gives you something that can still result in success. Seriously, we need to crunch numbers here, but we need an alternative "rule" to follow on rerolls. Mine is, "reroll misses". Yours is, what, that's what I'm asking.

Say we have two lances and a chrono. Say we have the rule, "wait as long as possible to reroll". So, if we miss twice, we'd reroll one. If we hit one and miss one, we'd let it go. From then on, we reroll anything. If we hit twice, obviously nothing to reroll and we "move the rule forward", ie, if we then pen one and miss one, we let it go. Etc, etc. We know the results are going to be better than the 11% naked, but I think they'll be worse than the 24% "reroll early" rule.

I managed to work one ghost ark into my list, not just for protection but for the additional mobility for the unit.

Lets say for the sake of this argument that both units get the same roll for their run and it can be ignored.

6 inch move

vrs

12 inch move
3 inch pivot
2 inches(plus base so three inches)

18

Add on run and suddenly that unit of warriors is almost two objectives away.

Now I only run one but the added mobility combined with the defensive nature really gives that warrior unit with two lances a large threat range.

For the other unit I just run em on foot and if I think my opponent is going to shoot them a lot I give them stealth and go to ground if need be.

Now if that unit of warriors gets whipped out and one of the crypteks stands back up I can use the ghost ark to refill the unit. Now I am back up to two lances firing that turn.

If there is only the Crytek left, can the Ghost Ark rebuild the warriors from that unit?
I thought there would have to be at least one warrior left for that to happen.

That is just for reanimation protocols where it says a character is not enough for the unit to reanimate.

However when a court member joins a unit they are for all intents and purposes a member of that unit, thats why they still count as troops. The Ghost ark adds back models to a warrior unit, not warrior models to a warrior unit

nice! Another little nugget to remember.

Randall Turner wrote: Wait, no, bolded part, that's just wrong. Rerolling to hit *IS* the best use of the Chronometron, it corrects the "worst case", unluckiest result 2/3 of the time and gives you something that can still result in success. Seriously, we need to crunch numbers here, but we need an alternative "rule" to follow on rerolls. Mine is, "reroll misses". Yours is, what, that's what I'm asking.
.

I dont know how else to explain this to you. Can you not see that having an extra Destructek with a lance will always be better than a Eternitek with Chronometron if you only use the reroll on the to hit. 1 extra shot or 1 reroll to hit = no contest.

Do the math if you want. If you do discover that the Chronometron is best used on the to hit roll (you wont) then we can all forget about using it with Lances ever again.

Moosatronic Warrior wrote:

Randall Turner wrote: Wait, no, bolded part, that's just wrong. Rerolling to hit *IS* the best use of the Chronometron, it corrects the "worst case", unluckiest result 2/3 of the time and gives you something that can still result in success. Seriously, we need to crunch numbers here, but we need an alternative "rule" to follow on rerolls. Mine is, "reroll misses". Yours is, what, that's what I'm asking..

I dont know how else to explain this to you. Can you not see that having an extra Destructek with a lance will always be better than a Eternitek with Chronometron if you only use the reroll on the to hit. 1 extra shot or 1 reroll to hit = no contest.

Do the math if you want. If you do discover that the Chronometron is best used on the to hit roll (you wont) then we can all forget about using it with Lances ever again.

Moose, if we only use the reroll on the to-hit, it's because we missed. But most of the time we won't use it there because we won't miss. The whole reason a to-hit reroll is better, is because the to-hit roll usually succeeds. So in the rare case where we miss, the reroll will also usually succeed.

But the chrono improves the lancetek across the spectrum of results. The lancetek can get anything from a complete whiff to a hit/pen/kill, and the floating chrono reroll slides the whole range of results "up" towards a kill.

We know for a fact that a single lancetek with a chrono has a better chance of getting a kill than two lanceteks. .24 vs. .20 The math there is pretty simple.**

The problem is that if we look at three lanceteks vs. two and a chrono, or two and a chrono with different reroll rules, the combinatorial expansion of probability branches makes the math tedious. No one calculation is hard, there's just a bloody lot of different possible situations. it's about an hour of work. <sigh> If I do it, I'll stick it in another thread and label it.

** - (I'm pretty sure two lanceteks have a better chance of doing some damage than a lance/chrono, but the original reason I was looking at this was Imotekh's unit which *has* to have a chrono, and I was noticing that the attached lancetek seemed to be doing better than my gut expected.)

I agree, however I find that I would not put a lancetek in Imoteks unit, I think some sort of protective cryptek would be better. Maybe a tremortek or a veiltek. Tremor makes them much harder to assault(crucible) or the veiltek makes it so they can get away.

Moose, if we only use the reroll on the to-hit, it's because we missed. But most of the time we won't use it there because we won't miss

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Thats what I have been saying. To be clear; against tanks you only Reroll a to-hit if you score NO hits.

The whole reason a to-hit reroll is better,

Rerolling to hit against Tanks is NOT better. Once again, if you do this you are better off with an extra lance.

is because the to-hit roll usually succeeds. So in the rare case where we miss, the reroll will also usually succeed.

This right here is your problem. You are thinking that if you hit on a 3+ and pen on a 4+ you are best rerolling the 3+ because your Chrono will then have a 2/3 chance of being successful rather than 1/2 if you reroll the 4+. This is wrong.

Rerolling the 3+ gives a 33% increase in your chances hitting. Rerolling the 4+ gives a 50% increase in you chances of penetrating.
This combined with the very important fact that you only need 1 damage result against Tanks (as opposed to more-the-merrier on infantry) is why you save the reroll as late as possible, hopefully using it on the damage table.

I remember a GK character in the old codex (Captain Stern?) who gave you one reroll per turn (game?) that could be used on any dice from any unit and it was almost always saved for a reroll on a damage table roll, its just the best thing to reroll.