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Well that's Forecasting 101 there Alpha - you base what you're going to get on historical averages. Any future events would be then factored into that forecast, but as we don't know what those events are (only the people making the game do) they cannot be factored in yet, thus we can only go on the base average per day and extrapolate from there.

Which in this case is goofy as we KNOW there are more stretch goals coming, and that they will make the current 'forecast'... useless!

You cannot criticise an automatic forecasting tool for being unable to incorporate unknowns into its running total. It's not designed that way, and as these stretch goals are uncontrollable and not based on any pattern, they cannot be factored in.

I'm criticizing it for being bog standard simple and not at all an accurate tool to forecast... anything.

If you hit the experimental ones it's a little better. It's the little pie symbol on the bottom left of the last chart.

Hulksmash wrote:If you hit the experimental ones it's a little better. It's the little pie symbol on the bottom left of the last chart.

Wow, that is way better. Kicktraq has been bothering me, too, because they always seem to be low (not taking into account the usual last-minute surge, and projects gaining momentum kind of like compound interest).

That shows the predicted range to be a low of $466,887 and a high of $644,215. Sounds a lot more likely... not sure why the standard graph would be so far on the low end of that range, unless it's just not incorporating any of the features of the experimental (and thus completely unrelated).

I think one is a baseline average while the other takes into account the percentage of increase over a number of recent days to project potential growth. Not 100% sure though

Here is the kicktraq for Zombicide: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/coolminiornot/zombicide/

Zombicide took 23 days to hit $200K and 26 days to hit $300K. Sedition Wars hit $200K in 16 days and $300K in 18 days.
Sedition Wars did $32K the first day and did $32K on about day 15. Zombicide first did $32K only in the last week.

Zombicide added 3405 backers after it hit $300K.

Sedition Wars could go as high as Zombicide if the end push is similar. What kids of stuff did Zombicide offer in the last 6 says or so?

tim

xole wrote:For accurate, non-memory based interpretations of how a kickstarter has done so far, here is the kickstarter tracker link

Total Linkage

If it gets a surge like zombicide did(a surge I intend to contribute to) then I think it'll hit 500k for sure.

Edit: I know this has been posted already, but...well, we know how that goes

I didn't actually post it to see "where we're going" so much as "how things have done so far" after I saw people commenting on how they thought Sedition Wars made X amount of money per day when they made Y Stretch Goal. Seeing how zombicide went, a lot of crazy things are possible.

At this moment Sedition Wars has the same number of stretch goals as Zombicide had at 17. Zombicides last 7 were for their pop culture reference characters, going from $200k and up. Chuck Norris was the 290k to 340k one.

One thing worth noting is that they racked up an additional $80k past their last stretch goal.

For me at least, Sedition Wars scratches a sci-fi horror itch I've had for quite some time. I wonder how many people feel the same. Things could get pretty interesting.



Edited for Clarification

Zombicide also had the battlefoam trays, which would have quickly bulked up the donations

endtransmission wrote:Zombicide also had the battlefoam trays, which would have quickly bulked up the donations

I hope that Sedition Wars comes out with them too, so that other people can buy them and raise some more stretch goals. I'm afraid I'm personally not interested in foam for this game.

Kikctraq is not designed to show projections, only trends.

If you read the FAQ on their page, it says as much.

Providing data is the primary purpose of their site, not attempting to provide any kind of logic to kickstarter patterns, which are, to be quite honest, completely and utterly chaotic.

Does anyone know when the opticamo minis would ship, it doesnt say on the kickstarter (which could mean it will ship in Nov)

as they are the same miniatures, just in a different material, I would imagine November. the delays on the other stuff is because they still need to actually make them

Well, I finally climbed down from the fence, decided not to buy 6th edition this month, and instead pledged $210 for Alabaster's Biohazard edition, Lights Out, terrain and all three extra characters. The rules and the miniatures just look too nice to pass up. Now I'm looking forward to November...

Zombicide picked up a lot of steam at the end with the addition of some more 'not-(insert famous person/character here)' $10 add on miniatures plus some 'free' if you were already at the $100 level perks too.

I have no doubt that SW will do something similar, though I'm not sure I see an additional $300K on the last 3 days happening again!

Still, who knows?!?

Best not to read too much into Zombicide, the Penny Arcade shoutout and Adepticon (?) promo were pretty huge towards the end.

Those things probably had much more impact on the final surge of backers than offering zombie celebs.

What Adepticon promo? I was there, but didn't see anything about it... granted, I wasn't necessarily looking. (Or maybe I misunderstand you)

scarletsquig wrote:Best not to read too much into Zombicide, the Penny Arcade shoutout and Adepticon (?) promo were pretty huge towards the end.

Those things probably had much more impact on the final surge of backers than offering zombie celebs.

While those are nice, I don't think you should discount the effect of good stretch goals.

There is no logical reason to assume a linear development in funds. It is just a random guess that has proven wrong in several other kickstarters.

Expensive summer for gaming, trying to scratch up the 100 to chip in by the 30th. Zombiecide and 40k already got me!

Alpharius wrote:

scarletsquig wrote:Best not to read too much into Zombicide, the Penny Arcade shoutout and Adepticon (?) promo were pretty huge towards the end.

Those things probably had much more impact on the final surge of backers than offering zombie celebs.

While those are nice, I don't think you should discount the effect of good stretch goals.

To be fair, a Penny-Arcade shoutout is a huge thing amongst gamers on the internet.

scipio.au wrote:

Alpharius wrote:

scarletsquig wrote:Best not to read too much into Zombicide, the Penny Arcade shoutout and Adepticon (?) promo were pretty huge towards the end.

Those things probably had much more impact on the final surge of backers than offering zombie celebs.

While those are nice, I don't think you should discount the effect of good stretch goals.

To be fair, a Penny-Arcade shoutout is a huge thing amongst gamers on the internet.

I would disagree, to be sure, it is a big site. Calling it huge and portraying it as a site every gamer uses, might not be the best way to describe it. Either way, SW isn't going to jump at this point without an exciting optional purchase and some insanely cool stretch goals posted.

It's not a site every gamer uses regularly, nor did I describe or even imply such. (I only look at it once every month or three.)

It is a site that a huge number of gamers know about and check out at least once in awhile. They do have a notable influence on a lot of stuff, simply through cat-herding if nothing else. Their links crash sites regularly. It's also very much a cross-genre site these days.

scipio.au wrote:It's not a site every gamer uses regularly, nor did I describe or even imply such. (I only look at it once every month or three.)

It is a site that a huge number of gamers know about and check out at least once in awhile. They do have a notable influence on a lot of stuff, simply through cat-herding if nothing else. Their links crash sites regularly. It's also very much a cross-genre site these days.

Fair enough, I never check it.

Board Game Geek is having a giveaway

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/818174/coolminiornot-sedition-wars-contest-ends-june-26th


Edit: bah, my impatience got the best of me. Only got 3/5 questions right

IdentifyZero wrote:Fair enough, I never check it.

Yeah. Penny Arcade is kind've its own army. Whenever there's a call to action by Gabe of Tycho the PA fans really make waves. There have been times when they've commented on just how often they underestimate the things they can do with their fanbase.

Damn these Kickstarters - not only am I giving them all my money, I also have now bought a copy of "Dead Space" just so I can understand the reference

Slinky wrote:Damn these Kickstarters - not only am I giving them all my money, I also have now bought a copy of "Dead Space" just so I can understand the reference

yeah,
I've given them money for;
Sedition Wars: Battle for Alabaster
Amanda Palmer: The new RECORD, ART BOOK, and TOUR
Tentacle Bento - by Soda Pop Miniatures
Zombicide
Shadowrun Returns

and I've received nothing yet...
what if this is one great big scam!

Panic...

I believe that might be the first time your name signature after each post has been appropriate